Spring jumps to mid-season form -- is it time for watching storms?

The weather pattern to start the weak puts most of the showers above us, but that all changes later this week.

A good Monday morning to you all.

Over the weekend we were treated to some spectacular temperatures by any standard. Hopefully you got a chance to get out there and enjoy them. We're still going to have that mild weather in town to start this week as well, but now more showers are going to nudge into the mix.

HPC - Surface Map - Monday Afternoon

As described in the last blog post, we're now into this weather pattern that features a decidedly more spring-summer-like horizontally oriented series of fronts in which impulses cut across the Ohio Valley in a conga-line of sorts. The convergence zone of precipitation is mostly contained to our north, but as with this scenario we'll get a few undulations that can scrape across our area with a few showers (and thunderstorms).

HPC - Projected Rainfall - Through early Thursday

For the most part, we're left out of the deep moisture surge as part of the developing storm system out to our west. Whenever this situation arises and we're tucked under the main convergence zones of the system, we call this the "warm sector" and that's the main thing you should expect-- above normal temperatures to continue. In the summertime we'll start adding pop-up afternoon air mass thunderstorms to the mix, but it's not time for that just yet.

The "loading" of that same storm out west with that warm rush of Gulf moisture will not only lift that arm of rainfall farther north on Wednesday, but temperatures should surge northward as well to make this week the first run across the 80-degree mark this season. When the line finally comes through, it is customary to expect thunder with its arrival.

GFS - Thursday Morning GFS - Overnight Into Friday

This represents our best "clash of air masses" we've seen so far, where the 80-degree air out ahead of the front is exchanged for the 50-degree air behind it. It may not even matter when this line comes through as far as whether or not we hear thunder, but coming in during the prime heating hours of the day will always help put out a little extra.

SPC - Severe Weather Probabilities - Through Early Thursday

The Storm Prediction Center has certainly picked up on this, and April is prime-time for the Mississippi Valley for severe weather. Now, once this same line heads our way, it very well may become more muted, but it is something we'll be keeping an eye on here at the station. The 'death-and-taxes' inevitability you should be getting prepared for though is a flash back to the unseasonable cold that we took so long to leave. It's waiting for us on the other side of the front:

GFS - Max Temps - Wednesday GFS - Max Temps - Thursday GFS - Max Temps - Friday

This puts morning frost, perhaps even a Canaan Valley flurry, back in the mix as we approach the coming weekend. Even though we had been well used to such temperatures for just about all of March and even the first days of April, it takes just a tiny sampling of the warmer weather before we're all ready to go for spring. Ah well ;-)

6-10 Day Outlook - Temperature 6-10 Day Outlook - Precipitation

Perhaps we'll be able to stay used to this warmer weather yet...

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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