Starting off the week with rain

Grab the umbrella for this one.

It's back to Monday everyone!

After giving Mom the day off, dad's happy to be back at work-- where it's more restful ;-)

Our weather starts right where it left off yesterday: with the showers. Here's a look at the projected rainfall amounts over the next 48-hours...

HAS Precipitation Forecast HPC Precipitation Forecast

The shift to the mountains we talked about is now progressing, with higher rainfall totals expected out that way. Since thunder is not expected to be a large component with this system, we will most likely see a low flash flooding threat. But yes, it's a soggy one to be sure as the rain will be steady and spread out over many hours (particularly in the eastern mountains).

The forecast models still have a little discrepancy with the anticipated exit of the moisture from this event, so let's talk about it...Here's the GFS and the WRF:

GFS - Tuesday PM WRF - Tuesday PM

This time around (and not like yesterday), the GFS is now trying to hang back some moisture in parts of West Virginia. The WRF has pretty-much remained consistent from the previous run, which is a promising sign in its favor. Oh, this model is also for Tuesday afternoon, rather than the morning hours that I showed yesterday (just to be transparent-- I think the later time-frame further helps the WRF anyway).

Another thing to examine that will help the idea of moisture lingering in the region Tuesday instead of kicking out of town early is the weather above ground level.

GFS - Tuesday PM - Relative Humidity (700mb) WRF - Tuesday PM - Relative Humidity (700mb)

Normally I use this product to identify likely locations for cloud-cover, but there are other applications for looking at the weather at the 700mb-level (around 10,000ft altitude). When a surface front goes through, you can think of it as attached to a series of fronts that also exist at every altitude above it-- kind of like a large wedge that is being pushed by the prevailing winds. In most cases, these elevated fronts are upstream/behind the one at the surface. Since they too can generate weather on the ground despite being elevated, we can examine their characteristics to see if there's anything we can take-away. In this case, we do indeed. Look at the deep drop-down on the WRF model at the 700mb level. The WRF clearly wants to rotate a substantial front at 700mb to coincide with (and follow) the one at the surface. There's a spike in relative humidity (clouds) associated with it as well. The GFS model, though much more demure about it, also has a front that is not fully through the mountains yet. Both models show a decent drop in relative humidity following the front, so we can look for a little sunshine beyond it.

Here's the temperature trends for the next few days...

GFS - MaxTemps - Mon GFS - MaxTemps - Tue GFS - MaxTemps - Wed

The clouds will keep the temperatures in check for a while, but when the Sun comes back we'll get out them 80s. :-)

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
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Have a great day everyone!

-B

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