Staving off showers as long as we can... but not too long.

Heat and humidity increase over the next few days, and so do the chances for rain.

It's the middle of the week... all downhill from here to the weekend :-)

Our weather may well be going downhill a little bit as well, as we wave good-bye to high pressure sliding off the eastern seaboard. This allows a return flow of southwesterly breezes to bring in moderating temperatures and a bump up in humidity. It's not going to go back to 'hazy hot and humid' or anything, but we will get back above normal for mid September. Each afternoon we'll do battle with partly sunny skies and see if showers come our way. At first it will be real sparse, but gradually we'll get more in here. The NAM shows this well:

The western counties stand a better shot than the eastern ones, but for these showers we're not expecting gully-washers. Area-wide rain moves through this weekend with a cold-front coming by. There's still a little play with this one, but the current timing has it during the second-half of Saturday (unfortunately). Here's the GFS:

No one wants to see showers on a weekend, though we've been well spoiled by near-perfect weather lately (particularly last weekend). Nevertheless, hopefully we can thread the needle and put the bulk of the precipitation in the overnight hours. Sunday has been somewhat of an enigma as of late, with the GFS flip-flopping around regarding that area of disturbed weather aloft (indicated by the red circle on the right-hand map). The Euro has been rather consistent in keeping things moving well enough to shunt the showers that develop in response to this agitation over to the other side of the mountains. Now that the GFS is edging closer to such a solution it's looking a little better for Sunday (but it's still early).

This vorticity (the red blob) on the right-hand map will combine with some gathering tropical moisture that feeds across Florida onward to the Atlantic Ocean. It may well develop into a minor tropical system, but overall seems like another harmless event for local concerns.

I'd write more about this year's tropical season, but there really hasn't been anything worth writing about :-) ...I haven't felt the need to hype impending possibilities and all that, and nothing has ended rising to the occasion. We've actually had more tropical nastiness with the monsoon season along the Rockies than anything in the Atlantic or Caribbean. Not that I'm rooting for big tropical storms or anything-- just making an observation ;-)

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