Greetings all! You have made it to another Friday.
The hottest weather of the season continues today, with the repetitive pattern of the scattered afternoon thunderstorm. Here's the recent NAM model run on today's action:
Not much different than how it went yesterday. Expect some patchy fog in the morning, and a few towering thunderstorms, complete with their downpours, to track from lunchtime straight through to after sunset. Highs should be slightly cooler today, but because of the humidity it'll most likely still feel like 100+ out there.
We've still got our eyes on this weekend's weather, looking toward it to bring some much-needed relief from the heat. Recent model runs have it stalling a little bit into Saturday night.This may hold some advantage to us though (GFS):
The overnight arrival of the actual front line itself will allow both Saturday and Sunday to avoid a rain-out of weekend plans, basically trying to keep things closer to a scattered storms feel rather than an all day rain. Make no mistake: we're all going to get wet at some point over the weekend, but there will be many dry hours still available to salvage the days. As the front moves slower and slower through Monday it will cool us down to the 80s instead of the mid 90s. Don't count on a dry stretch of weather coming in here anytime soon. Whenever the fronts we see in the summertime end up laying horizontally across our region (like Monday's model output is showing), there's always going to be a risk of showers and storms riding along it to perk up the day.
Update (9:30pm) - The Heat Advisory is once again in effect for the area, primarily for the hours of 2pm-8pm, but keep an eye on things for most of the day. In truth, heat stress days are a compounding thing. It's not like we can get used to it. Sweat doesn't work, the breezes here are laced with steam instead of the cooling effect of the 'dry heat' to the southwest. Children, pets, and the elderly would be the most susceptible. Don't forget a lot of public places can provide free air conditioning.
Another element to the forecast is with the front line that will drop down on Saturday. SPC is picking up on this, and has a "slight risk" out there for severe weather on its 2-day outlook:
The prospects for severe weather become dependent on the available amount of daytime heating we see on Saturday. It's possible that we'll already be affected by some jack-rabbit showers in advance of this line, knocking down severe weather chances. If we hit 90 with a few hours of sunshine, the option for gusty thunderstorms becomes more squarely on the table. It's something to watch.
Have a great day everyone!