Good Sunday morning to one and all...
Our weather picture has improved somewhat overnight, as most of the bursts of showers and storms have finished out of the area and the stream has quieted. However, we still find ourselves 'in the zone' for convection as the simulated radar indicates:
|NAM - Simulated Radar - Sunday 8am||NAM - Simulated Radar - Sunday 2pm||NAM - Simulated Radar - Sunday 8pm|
(again, you can pop up a larger image of those radars by clicking on it). Connecting the dots puts us still in that area on the map where Murphy's Law would place showers. However, we should be able to count on a few more episodes of sunshine too, and with temperatures hitting the 70s the day won't be a total loss. Don't be surprised if a shower or storm spots up though, so check the radar below if you're going to be outside for an extended period of time. On the last image you see a more organized area of moisture just entering the Ohio Valley from the west. This is our next weather-maker for the week ahead. Here's what it looks like on HPC's surface maps:
|HPC - Monday AM||HPC - Monday PM|
A storm system is going to be riding northeastward through the Ohio Valley, placing us first in line for the warm front showers (the red line on the map is the warm front), and then following that the cold front will get closer (the blue line). Warm front showers are more widespread than those of the cold front, but they are also patchier. Cold fronts are more known for a sharper line of showers and storms. The past couple of events have had us experience the warm front and cold front of a storm system in rapid success, giving us a soaker. This time around the storm system's center will be a little farther north, spreading things out a little bit more. Hopefully that makes things more manageable :-)
Another element we see on the maps above is that the area of high pressure in southern Canada is finally pushed out as well. This is also a good sign for the forecaster, as it was responsible for slipping in cold air from the north and generating very large temperature differences in our area from north to south (we talked about that yesterday. I want to show this to you another way using the "anomalies" maps-- which indicate where temperatures stand in relation to normal:
|GFS - Temp Anomalies - Sunday PM
||GFS - Temp Anomalies - Monday PM||GFS - Temp Anomalies - Tuesday PM|
(Again, just click those images to pop-out a larger one) So now instead of having a situation where temperatures that are 10-degrees below normal are within 100 miles of temperatures that are 10-degrees above normal, we'll all just warm up. Any complaints? :-) Another thing to point out is that now that we're entering May, the 'anomalies' thing gets a little easier. March and April are often marked with near ridiculous departures from normal (remember those days when we saw temperatures in the upper mid-west that were 50(!) degrees warmer than normal). If we were to get that in one of the summer months, well, that would put us in the 130-degree range here-- not likely to happen. This week will feature temperatures that are 10-15 degrees above normal, which will put us in the low-to mid 80s. Now if we can just keep that Sun out for a while, we'd really have something.
Full suite of tracking maps today, and updates if necessary...
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!