Update below (most recent 4:30pm)
It's Wednesday-- half way there to the weekend!
The past couple of days have featured an increase of heat and humidity, in conjunction with an increase in the afternoon showers and storms. Nevertheless, not everyone has been hit with the rain bug during the afternoon hours. That will change today as the peak action occurs with the approach of a cold front from the west. It's the first actual front to get here in weeks, so let's hope it does its job and makes it through the area.
The only problem with fronts in the summer-time is that you have to pay up-front; meaning, they are the cause of the thunderstorms before they are the cause for the better weather behind it.
Storm Prediction Center - Severe Weather Probability - Wednesday
This map will be updated a little while from now, and you can see it below in the tracking maps. The main threat will be any gusty thunderstorms that spot up, most likely in organized cells that race out ahead of the actual front. However, this element of severe weather will be more isolated compared to the (again) threat for flash flooding. Wednesday afternoon may well be one of those times that we're simultaneously under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch and a Flash Flood Watch. All the currently active watches and warnings are displayed in the tracking maps below.
It won't be all bad during the day though. Much like yesterday there will be a time of steamy heat and humidity build-up, most likely again during the mid-morning through lunchtime. As highs progress into the mid and upper 80s it wont take much to get things going nor keep things going when storms arrive.
HPC - 48hour Rainfall Projection
Flash flood guidance has the most vulnerable spots needing about 1.5" of rain in a 6-hour period to set things off, but a 2.5" rainfall would be good for just about anyone. Given the rainfall forecast, it would take a concentrated thunderstorm or connected series of downpours to get those numbers. This makes this afternoon and evening as the best window for this all to happen.
HPC - Surface Map - Thursday Morning
As this front comes through and wrings out much of the available humidity, bringing widespread showers and storms, once it passes it will have paved the way for a lower humidity not seen in a couple of weeks. In addition, the best sunshine and seasonably cooler temperatures (check out the 7-Day forecast below for the specs). Thursday itself will be a transitional day though, with the remnant showers pushing through. If we play our cards right, we may well get the first taste of the nicer weather by Thursday evening.
After a great couple of days right where we need it (and well deserved mind you), we'll be looking at some complications for the forecast next week. On the one hand, our high pressure ridge tries to stick around and help keep things drier than the past two weeks, we've got "Chantal" to the south that will be real close to the Southeastern states:
Since this storm is forecast to go over the high mountains of the Dominican, I would still hold off on the exact-ness of the forecast path beyond that point. Historically all sorts of things can happen with the track of the storm once debilitated by those slopes. On a side note, if you thought we got a lot of rain... I bet parts of the Dominican Republic will receive more rain in 12-hours than we've had in the past 12 days, wet as it's been
As we see now on the Warnings map below, we're now under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in addition to a Flash Flood Watch (often a combination thrown up with soggy ground and a wholesale front approaching).
There have actually been a few reports of near hurricane-force winds with these lines, mostly to our north above I-70. Nevertheless, we'll have dual threats of rain and wind with the stronger storms. The most vulnerable to flooding are counties north of I-64, but anyone is susceptible to floodwaters if they catch more than one of these boomers. Remember, this is just the thing needed to be able to wipe out the ever-present humidity overhead and give us a quiet couple of days soon.
Have a great day everyone!