Welcome to your Saturday.
Showers will approach from the west, but most of the action will be along and north of the Ohio River. It's all part of that lifting warm front we've been talking about.
|Surface Map - Saturday PM||Surface Map - Sunday PM|
The main action is off to our west with the storm system draped right across the Mississippi River Valley. It's another one of those "Clash of air masses" set-ups where the cold air rushes in behind the warm air and sets storms ablaze. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has taken some unusual steps to highlight the potential for tornadoes.
|SPC - Tornado Outlook - Saturday|
The hatched area within those colors would further indicate the probability for severe tornadoes (EF-2 to EF-5) occurring within 25-miles of any one point. If you do the math on how many square miles of area is enveloped by those colors, the probabilities are today that an actual tornado 'outbreak' is going to be happening out there. Meanwhile, we'll be in a much calmer position even if we do get a shower or rumble this afternoon/evening. Our next shot at showers beyond this approaches on Monday afternoon and lasts into early Tuesday. By then we'll have gone from shake to bake. Here are how our temperatures are setting up:
|GFS - Temp Anomaly - Sunday PM||GFS - Temp Anomaly - Sunday PM|
So we see this 'clash' in the plains states where from South Dakota into Minnesota there's a 20-30 degree temperature shift from above normal to below normal, whereas our own area gets a tiny piece of this clashing on Monday afternoon (the image on the right). I suppose most importantly we should notice the 15-20 degrees above normal air that will be overhead Sunday/Monday-- that puts us back in those low to mid 80s. Our main threat for storms will be later Monday into early Tuesday judging from the map on the right.
This is what the GFS is hinting at for the same time frame:
|GFS - Monday 8pm|
Looks like rain to me :-) Something we'll keep an eye on in the coming days.
You get a full suite of tracking tools today because of the severe weather out west. My guess is there will be a lot of headlines in the news with the storms that will pop today. Perhaps it will be a good reminder for us to always know what the plan is when a tornado warning comes on the TV screen.
One final house-keeping bit. A commenter had asked for a graphic that gives the weather for the next three days in a general form. I've placed this down with the tracking tools. Hopefully this works for y'all :-)
Update (noon) - The SPC has issued it's first group of severe weather watches in the central plains (far from us), but we have two lines of showers and storms headed our way presently. Tracking them below on radar puts those along the Ohio River and points north as the most likely to see these conditions. For those that do get the rains, perhaps consider yourselves lucky because we could use a little pollen reduction around here.
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!
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