Welcome to your Friday-- and welcome to June!
Today is the start of what is called the "meteorological summer". It's a lot easier to keep track of seasonal weather and trends if the months themselves are divided up, so simply enough June, July, and August get the "summer" designation. Just for ha-ha's I'll put the "Summer Preview" blog entry from a while ago up higher in the blog-roll if you want to keep tabs on how it's going.
Today will most certainly be a 'below-normal' day, and the start of a few such days in a row. However, temperature won't be the big story this go around as we're finally at "Game Time" for this storm system we've been talking about for about a week. Here's the NAM projection for the day:
|NAM - Friday 8am||NAM - Friday 2pm||NAM - Friday 8pm|
As expected, the action that happens in the morning will be the 'garden-variety' showers and storms. We'll have to keep an eye on where the cold front is in the afternoon, because that's the likely time for elements to attempt to come together if we're going to get severe weather. At this point, it looks like an uphill climb, but the threat will nevertheless still exist for the area today because of this strong cold front-- and we will respect it. Another thing that jumps out at me is the quick shut-off of precipitation following the passage of the front Friday evening. This is a common occurrence, but not only does this refer to the end of rain, but also breaks in the clouds. I suspect we'll be getting a lot of E-Reporter Pix of rainbows as those clouds break (always welcome) :-)
Here's the latest breakdown of the severe weather threat for the area (from the Storm Prediction Center):
|SPC - Hail Threat||SPC - Wind Threat||SPC - Tornado Threat|
Yesterday we were tracking a moderate severe scenario coming through Kentucky timed with the prime heating hours of the day, but today all the various ingredients do not seem to want to all line up as nicely. In fact, the best targets for severe weather to develop would be along and east of the WV mountains. Gusty winds are the biggest threat, as heavy rain can mix down winds from higher up in a storm (or push the air it displaces quickly forward as it falls).
Here's the current expectations of rainfall from this event:
|HAS Precipitation Forecast||HPC Precipitation Forecast|
The highest expectations for rainfall will be north of us, but anything over 0.5" in a day is a decent amount for the flowers. Add to that the cooler temperatures that will flow in behind for the weekend, and you'll probably be able to stare at the grass as it grows.
Following the passage of the cold front we're not quite going to be able to ditch this system, as there will be a significant disturbance in the Great Lakes area that is well positioned to annoy us over the weekend. Each day will try to spring forth sunshine, but when that happens the slightest inkling of heating will force a deck of cumulus clouds to spring into action. During the mid-afternoon of both Saturday and Sunday this means keeping an eye out for a quick-hitting quick-leaving shower. The GFS has what I'm looking for:
|GFS - Saturday PM||GFS - Sunday PM|
Instead of seeing this as a big splattering of the purple color, think of it as little pockets of light rain with sunshine in between (the GFS grid spacing is smearing it all together to make it look like a large area of showers). These little showers will act up in the afternoon, but other parts of the day will be fairly pleasant (partly cloudy, temperatures around 70). I wouldn't be changing your weekend plans on account of these showers-- just if you end up bumping into one, now you know where it's coming from. :-)
Today's a tracking day, so a full suite of maps will be below. They will be updating constantly, so feel free to check back often to see how things are progressing. If need-be and as time permits I will be updating this blog post.
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!