Good Sunday morning to one and all!
It's time to "fall back" an hour with those clocks. It will be weird going back into work on Monday and having the Sun rise again during the morning news despite theoretically continuing to head down the path to the shortest days and longest nights. Remember though, your night comes a lot earlier now-- before 6pm. I actually kind of like it. As some of you really early risers know, it can be a bear to try to get to sleep in the middle of the day-time.
Anyway, here's a look at our surface map this morning:
|HPC - Surface Map - Sunday|
Three main features appear-- The small low pressure system that slipped through yesterday with the spotty showers, The high pressure that moves in behind it, and then our next storm system in the northern plains that will eventually give rise to our new storm system. Now, normally when high pressure moves in after some showers we'd get to sunshine, but it's not going to be quite that easy. Notice the little orange trough line oriented north-to-south approaching the WV mountains. It represents some moisture and instability that gets hung up against the peaks and keeps the clouds in place. Also, in the fall and spring, when cold air filters in on the initial wing of high pressure arrival-- that too can generate clouds.
|NAM - Sunday Mid-day|
From left-to-right, the model products show moisture, winds, and then clouds. The main gist of what you should see is that we've got some low-level moisture and northerly winds at all the low level altitudes. Put them both together and we'll be seeing the cloud banks this morning. Even places that get sunshine (western counties, areas north/west of the mountains) will see puffy cumulus clouds pop up in the afternoon in response to the cold air dropping in from the north. It all spells a tussle to get the Sun out without a whole lot of actual preciptation. Highs today will continue to struggle to get back to 50, continuing our streak of temperatures well below normal.
So, About The Storm...
The weather will end up being uneventful early next week as that area of high pressure tries to maintain some order in the Ohio Valley. However, our deep-digging trough aloft will connect with the warm ocean waters of the Atlantic, and then it's on...
|NAM - 500mb Chart - Wednesday AM||NAM - Surface Chart - Wednesday AM|
On the 500mb Chart (left), you see a decent piece of vorticity (the "X") rotating around the base of the trough, enhancing it as it goes. It ends up having the effect of yanking the whole thing and orienting it farther forward at its base than it is aloft. This happens with some regularity in winter, but it's always nice for folks that track storms. I drew a line through the trough to demonstrate it's "tilt". Whenever a line that cuts through a trough axis cuts back across lines of longitude, it is said to be "negatively tilted". This speeds in arrival of cold air and future waves of energy, but then slows them down right at the base. In the case of Sandy, this 'captured' the hurricane and dragged it inland for a crazy "Frankenstorm" combination. Without a prowling hurricane offshore, this setup can still produce a solid storm on its own. It makes use of the warm Atlantic waters and the strong upper-air pattern that keeps energy building. Notice the "Blocking High" to the north of the developing low. This also comes in handy for generating a stronger storm, enhancing its wind, and keeping it around longer.
|GFS - Thursday Morning||ECMWF - Thursday Evening|
Both the GFS and the Euro are locked in on this one, and it's looking pretty solid. A nice blocking high / coastal Nor'easter couplet makes for a lot of onshore wind and moisture. It's one that snow-lovers in southern New England wish they could save for later, as it's simply too early for something like this to get going for snow. However, inland is a different story, and the mountains should get a healthy amount of snow for early November.
|HPC - Total Precip Projection - Through Friday||GFS - Total Snowfall Projection - Through Friday|
Click on the images above for a larger pop-out.
We do have a shot in our own mountains to get a little bit of snow from this, as the winds will orient themselves with the lakes as this system churns up the coast. However, this is a made-for-New-England event. The weather pattern as of late has certainly creating some blockbusters. I'm sure at least some of you are hoping it continues that way straight into March ;-)
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!