10/12 Update (Dust Storm?) - Stubborn storm system influences the weather into the weekend

A very large system moves into the Great Lakes and gets hung up, bringing a range of weather for the tri-state area.

Update 2 - We've been getting a little bit of chatter on Facebook in regards to a thick layer of dust appearing on many car windows and such in parts of Eastern Kentucky this morning (and late last night)... As a coincidence, we ran a story on the 6am news that was about a dust storm that made its way into Eastern Tennessee direct from Oklahoma. (Story here)   ...Anyone else see this phenomenon where you live? It's quite interesting to get something like this propelled this far eastward from the source, but it's also a tribute to the persistent winds and ambient circulation around this large storm system gradually coming to an end across the Ohio Valley.

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10/20 Update - A lot of us are getting a pleasant parting of the clouds to start the day. A lot of the time this sort of thing would gain traction, before fading for more clouds in the afternoon (ironically the permitted sunlight becoming the catalyst)

The winds have also quieted down... enough to get those BASE jumpers going (but really, what would have stopped them on the one day it's legal out there on the New River Gorge) ;-)

If you've got time, you can follow the "fun" on their twitter feed and/or blog site. Head over to watch the brave souls...

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It's Friday-- Almost there! :-)

Our storm system that went through yesterday was actually just a piece of a larger system that's going to set up camp across the Great Lakes. In some respects, the "worst" is over, but that only depends on what your view of 'bad' is. We had several reports of hail and thunder yesterday to go along with downpours. Going forward, we'll just get a few scattered showers returning for parts of the day-- so not as bad there. But, the winds stay breezy. Here's what we've got on the weather map:

HPC - Friday Afternoon

Our large storm system is weakening, but as it unravels the area of general low pressure is expanding. The general circulation will remain intact as well, which means we'll get spiraling bands of dry air ("dry slots") and patchy showers. On the above map, I've drawn a yellow arrow to indicate a dry slot heading into town today, and then a blue arrow to indicate the persistence of cold air, breezes, and the eventual return of rainfall.

The showers will flare up in bunches, usually during those typical afternoon hours. Here is the NAM model with a few data points that bear this out:

NAM - Friday Afternoon NAM - Friday Evening NAM - Saturday Afternoon

In this "dry slot" today, we'll get the Sun shining again and temperatures will spike in the south-westerly breezes. Not that we'll get all the way to 70, but many of us will get well into the 60s. Late in the day there will be a few showers rotating toward us, but they will remain scattered and primarily north of I-64. Saturday shows another packet of scattered showers approaching, but this time without the warmer temperatures (here, the cooler air will have had plenty of time to filter in with the help of those winds).

Speaking of winds, the breezes will be fresh today and tomorrow. All that fall color will get rattled out of the trees, that's for sure. Here's a look at the 'streamlines' of wind we'll be seeing the next couple of days:

NAM - Winds - Friday Afternoon NAM - Winds - Saturday Afternoon

The stiffest breezes will becoming in from the southwest on Friday (aiding in the spike in temperatures), while Saturday still has breezes-- but from a cooler direction. Field goal kickers will be annoyed tonight at the game, but the real concern will be for Bridge-Day jumpers on Saturday. A 10-15 knot wind at the surface can certainly become gustier when nearly 900-feet above the New River.

Putting it together, here's a look at what you can expect for temperatures in the region on this perhaps 'as good as it'll get' fall foliage weekend:

GFS - MaxTemps - Friday GFS - MaxTemps - Saturday GFS - MaxTemps - Sunday

It sure feels like fall :-)

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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