Happy Saturday everyone!
Time to sit back and unwind...
Another excellent day on tap today. High pressure still trying to hold on to the area today as best as it can from the north. Just like yesterday, there's always a shot at up-slope clouds (and some showers), but given the wind direction (SE) that puts the threat outside our area and onto the other side of the mountains.
However, when we bring the hi-resolution simulated radar product into the mix, perhaps things are looking good for everyone:
|NAM - 4km Simulated Radar - Saturday PM||NAM - 4km Simulated Radar - Sunday PM|
The simulated radar product is keeping us dry all weekend long (though bringing clouds across those up-slope locations in the south. You can see the rain leaking in from the ocean-side, but so far so good. Actually, I am a bit skeptical, because we did end up with a few pop-ups yesterday. One good way to see how things are trending is to take a look at the run-to-run differences from one day to the next. So remember yesterday we looked at a NAM regional model product that showed showers actually all through the region Sunday afternoon. Here's how that same model is handling it in a more recent run:
|NAM - Sunday PM||GFS - Sunday PM|
So the trend from one run to the next would indicate a lessening rain threat for Sunday. I included the GFS model of the same time-stamp, and you can see that its rendering of the same weather system is still farther to the east than the NAM, but it has those pop-ups in the mountains on its radar-screen. My thoughts are that we will probably sprout one or two of these showers in the eastern/southern mountains Sunday afternoon, but it will be the kind of thing that you shouldn't change your plans over. All the major events going on this weekend (parades, festivals, outdoor art, etc.) should only be seeing pleasant weather. Temperatures will be in the 80s though, so you'll have to bring along the sunscreen and the water bottle.
Looking ahead to next week, we've got an interesting weather pattern. We'll be pinched by this rain-maker trying to inch in from the east over the mountains, and at the same time another system is trying to advance on us from the west. When this happens, and if neither one looks more dominant, then the weather will be generally unsettled with no easy timing ability for specific showers. So far, the eventual rain does look manageable, and we do have a few days to keep an eye on it, but here's a map that shows what I'm talking about:
|GFS - Monday (late)|
See? Kind of a mess in there. Eventually the cold front from the west will win out, but that won't sweep through until mid-week (it will be held up a little bit and forced to take its time). By then we'll need the rain, and we can't complain if we score such a fabulous weekend out of the deal (perhaps on both ends no less!). If you catch the forecast on WSAZ this morning, you might catch a little shower icon on Monday afternoon because of this kind of thing.
---Shameless Plug "Impossible Storm" Showing TONIGHT!---
Tonight's the night! Places everyone! :-) This project has been a long time in coming, and is the result of hundreds of man-hours worth of video retrieval, compelling interviews, and weather data-- packed into one of the best half-hours of local programming. I hope you think so too. We revisit the devastating tornadoes of March 2nd, and follow-up on the efforts to recover and rebuild. It airs tonight at 7pm on WSAZ. Please check it out and leave your thoughts in the comments section. Thanks!
---End tangent (shameless plug)---
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!