Summer shows up...

Temperatures soar under sunshine today, but it won't be long before those common-in-the-summertime hit/miss storms show up.

Welcome to Wednesday... The moment you've all been waiting for:

Time to forget about the cold, and move on to... complaining about the heat :-)

Seriously though, it will be hot out there today.

NAM - Surface Temperature - Wednesday Afternoon NAM - 850mb Temperature / Precipitation - Wednesday Afternoon

Here's a good rule of thumb: First, you need a "normal" day with a good shot at a "well mixed" atmosphere. This means no precipitation overhead and usually mostly sunny skies with a little wind. The right-hand map has those 850mb (5000-foot altitude) temperature contours again. They are about 17-18°C. On one of these normal days, the temperature drops about 3°C per 1000-feet, or 15°C for the whole trip from the surface to the 850mb level. [just as an aside, messing with standard and metric units at the same time is a math mess]. Anyway, given an 18°C afternoon, this would peg the max temperature at the surface at a whopping 33°C, or 91.4°F (!) Conditions are at least ripe and in the ballpark for such a thing to happen, although afternoon humidity can get in the way, particularly with a front draped just to our north. Regardless, it's certainly going to feel like 90+ out there today. Load up on the sunscreen, and drink plenty of fluids if outside for a long time!

Speaking of that front up there to our north-- it will be sagging south. Starting Thursday and lasting right through the weekend, the tri-state area will become the focus zone for patches of hit/miss showers and storms. This makes planning the afternoon barbecue and getting those baseball games in quite annoying, but that's the way it goes.

GFS - Thursday Morning GFS - Saturday Afternoon GFS - Monday Afternoon

Yep, that's what we call "stationary".

The good news is that as of now, I wouldn't cancel any plans for any particular hour because there's plenty of time each day when it won't be raining. The bad news is that anything longer than 3-hours outside or so will probably need to have a plan for in case it does rain, and we can get localized flooding problems if any one spot is unluckily hit multiple times from these scattered storms.

Oh, and I've already heard from some of you about this-- yes, the Euro is attempting to throw another cut-off special our way toward the end of the month. Here are the particulars on May 24th :-)

EURO - 500mb Projection - Friday, May 24th EURO - 850mb Projection - Friday, May 24th

I'm hoping you don't need me to tell you about the validation of things this far out. Nevertheless, often the timing is the main thing screwed up, and the gist is ends up occurring at some point (this means we're still in for some more cool days). Notice that I didn't say 'cold', as in frost. The record low for the day is, in fact, 32°F, but the typical low temperature is 55°F. This means it can still be well colder than normal and still put us out of the frost threat. I'd put a representation of the above as a morning in the 40s. Still cold, but not a danger. Yes, it's something we'll keep an eye on in the days ahead.

But for now, let's just stick to complaining about how hot it is outside ;-)

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
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Have a great day everyone!

-B

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