Good Tuesday morning everyone!
It's another great day today, but how about this near "chilly" start? Check out the maps below for your morning temperatures, and know that down in the holler' we'll see readings even lower-- more like the lower/mid 40s.
Sunshine in the afternoon will push the temperatures up a few degrees each day, but still keep us seasonably cool for this time of year.
One of the reasons for this stretch of dry, cool weather is the development of a huge area of high pressure at all levels of the atmosphere. Check out the model renditions at the 700 milibar level (10,000 feet):
|GFS - 700mb Chart - Tuesday PM||GFS - 700mb Chart - Friday PM|
10,000 feet (700mb) is a great vantage point to look for potential precipitation-capable cloud formation. Whenever the relative humidities dip below 30% or even 10% there's very little hope for rainfall-- and many more opportunities for sunshine. By Friday night things are starting to break down (and push east), but football still looks good. The actual timing of precipitation so far is the second-half of the day Saturday-- still an appreciable ways away.
|GFS - 500mb Chart - Saturday PM||GFS - Surface Chart - Saturday PM|
I don't show these maps together too often, but I do like to look at them whenever precipitation is coming. It's nice to see when the upper-level dynamics and the surface features phase well according to how the meteorology should play out. Here we've got a significant bowling-ball area of vorticity (the big red blob in the left-hand map), and it's charging up a storm system at the surface right over Cleveland, OH. It's moisture field expands to our area, so it's something to watch for the second-half of Saturday. There are some big events in Huntington that day (Chilifest! and the Marshall game following). Though there's still plennnty of time to see everything change a little, the Marshall game is currently in more poncho-jeopardy than the Chilifest (which is okay with me since I'll be all over that Chilifest on Saturday ;-)
Temperatures will be on the rise until the showers come, but they're not looking menacing. We'll rise a degree or two per day until we get to the mid 80s before the end of the week.
Speaking about the week ahead, here's the breakdown of anticipated temperature/precipitation anomalies of the next 6-10 days:
|6-10 Day Outlook - Temperature||6-10 Day Outlook - Precipitation|
Following the system that passes through this weekend, cold air filters in once again to the middle part of the country. This is evidence that a blocking pattern is in place that keeps the 'general weather pattern' in a rather stable position. This focuses invading waves of cooler than normal air into the northern plains before it drifts to the east. This would be pretty nice in the winter (if you like snow).
Speaking of which, how about this for a little tease...
|MREF Ensemble - Single Member C000 - Saturday AM 9/22|
One of the cool ways meteorologists have developed to look at the medium and longer-range forecasts is by developing "ensemble" models. This works by running the same model physics multiple times, varying the initial conditions they give the model to work with each time. The results typically will show what is assumed to be the envelope of most likely scenarios, with any bunching up of results between ensemble members as a higher degree of confidence in that result. Well, the other part about ensembles is that there's always at least one member that ends up showing something interesting, usually in la-la-land but there are always that diamond in the rough situation. Above is one such member that I deem to be "interesting" but also in "la la land" :-)
If you look at the red dashed line, it shows the number "540". This line is important for meteorologists, but is probably a little too technical to bother explaining, other than to say that it typically shows a rough dividing line between rain and snow whenever precipitation comes to an area. So then, how about temperatures in the 30s and 40s and flakes greeting the US...? I would call that 'interesting' :-)
Update - 9/11 Tangent...
I just wanted to comment slightly on the 9/11 tragedy, at least in terms of weather. I was here in West Virginia on that fateful day. It was a perfect sunny day without a cloud in the sky...
...Almost exactly like today.
In fact, take a look at these similarities...
|Infrared Satellite Imagery - 9/11/01||Infrared Satellite Imagery - 9/11/12|
The hurricane in the Atlantic back in 2001 was named Erin. The storm on the right in 2012 is named Leslie (now racing past Newfoundland).
Onshore, behind the cloud boundary draped just to the west of the two tropical systems, the sky on both days were practically cloud free. High pressure dominated both regions, with seasonable to seasonably cool temperatures:
|UNISYS - Surface Map - 9/11/2001||UNISYS - Surface Map - 9/11/2012|
(On a side note, it's interesting enough that it's hard to find weather websites in operation through such a long period, but Unisys has always been there ;-)
Both 9/11 days were on Tuesdays. For some reason, it's a whole lot easier to stand in rememberance this time around. I just feel eerily placed in similar circumstances, being a meteorologist in both years on both days.
Anyway, as you were... I just thought I'd post my thoughts.
-------------------- End Tangent
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!