8/24 Update - The forecast is essentially unchanged today, moving along exactly like it was yesterday. High temperatures from Wednesday to Thursday moved from 85/86 to 88/89. Today we may well top 90, there and Saturday.
Showers did pop in the afternoon, and were primarily restricted to the WV/VA border counties as expected. We'll see some more of that today too, primarily outside of our area.
On the "Isaac" front, you can still check out the maps below for the latest coordinates, track, and intensity... It has been trending westward in the models lately, though it's still quite early. My main thinking on this is that it's a minimal Tropical Storm now, and progged to hit some pretty crazy terrain on Hispaniola and Cuba. These two land masses enjoy shredding tropical systems, so it's not entirely out of the realm that we'll even have a headline-maker when it comes to next week. We'll see :-)
Welcome to Thursday ... almost there!
Indeed... High pressure continues it's control on our weather, effectively instituting a blocking regime with the help of the mountains. Storms approaching from the west are dissipated or diverted, and storms that pop along the ridges only muster short-lived inroads toward our region. It's a good time for those outdoor projects.
|HPC - Surface Map - Thursday PM|
Folks in the eastern/southern mountains will certainly have to factor in the idea of an afternoon pop-up shower, but that is a typical summertime experience considering the gentle upslope flow that will persist.
Temperatures are still expected to creep upward each day, building on the highs of the previous day. By the weekend we'll be getting close to 90, if not higher than that on the bank thermometers and car dashboards out there.
Our stretch of dry weather is going to continue until this area of high pressure washes out with the encroachment on all sides by storm systems held at bay for as long as possible. An interesting thing to watch is whether or not "Isaac" (as of this writing a Tropical Storm) in the Caribbean Ocean becomes the catalyst.
Here's the latest on "Isaac":
|NHC - Tropical Storm Isaac - Current Information And Forecast Track||Wunderground - Tropical Storm Isaac - Computer Models
The general consensus of the models would be to push the storm into the southeastern United States, with a few even attempting a run up the spine of the Appalachians. A couple things to note here: (1) The projected track over the Dominican Republic and Cuba is a death march for hurricanes. Land by itself is a killer of storms, but there are mountains several thousand feet high hanging out along the path to make things worse. The waters are warm for sure, but it takes a considerable period of open water to make things right after a land encounter like that. (2) When a storm of a tropical nature makes landfall and moves northward, its precipitation shield often transitions to the eastern/northern flanks of the system. In some cases, it's possible to be just to the west of one of these things and hardly experience any adverse conditions -- not that there's anything wrong with that (I prefer a nice quiet finish to the summer thank you very much).
It's also verrrry earrrrly... So just sit back and watch without changing plans or expecting anything in particular. It does look increasingly likely though that this storm will at least have some say in our weather early next week.
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!