Take the umbrella today-- but better (and cooler) weather is coming

Showers and storms are still going to take their time moving through today, so we'll still be monitoring those small streams and creeks. Next up after this will be improving skies and dropping temperatures-- is frost back in the mix?

Happy Tuesday everyone! :-)

A little "Tuesday" music for ye ... skip it if you hated the 80s, though deep down you know it's an okay choice for today :-)

Ugh...Okay... I admit, that may be flashing back a little too much. What is with that hair. Maybe some other day I'll break out the Moody Blues. A little more my style... anyway...

Today continues our rainy weather pattern, which isn't exactly wonderful for the area. A lot of folks already have balanced out their rainfall deficit from earlier, and the ones who haven't certainly don't want to see it made up all at once from a single storm.

Here's what we're looking at for the remainder of the event:

HAS Precipitation Forecast HPC Precipitation Forecast

 The northern part of WV, despite the flooding rains of late last week, still had a tiny deficit averaged out from the beginning of the growing season (Huntington itself is around 2" under normal since January 1st, but has been doing much better since plants sprouted. Any of the yellows and oranges (for as long as they last until these maps get another automatic update) would constitute flood threats if they catch a good storm. We'll be tracking this today.

Here's how the 12km resolution NMM model treats the showers on Tuesday/Wednesday:

NMM - Tuesday AM NMM - Tuesday PM NMM - Wednesday AM

The actual front-push of the moisture is holding back a bit, but will finally make it's way across the mountains during the day Tuesday. There are still some embedded pulses of moisture, so we'll still expect some 'garden-variety' thunderstorms in the mix. Now, for Wednesday, despite the front having past us, we still won't be out of the woods just yet for rainfall, as I'm betting we'll squeeze out a few drops in the afternoon. Here's one reason why:

NMM - Streamlines - Wednesday PM

This is still the NMM model, but a different product that I think I've brought in for the first time here. I like giving you all a flavor for the different ways meteorologists examine the atmosphere, and the different model renderings we can look at to draw out the important aspects of the forecast. It's kind of like the way a doctor would look at a patient he/she is trying to diagnose...Perhaps an MRI one time, a CAT Scan another, or maybe an X-Ray or Ultrasound will suffice. This map shows 'streamlines', or basically the flow of the wind at the surface. I like the tighter grid-spacing (12km) of the NMM model (the NAM does not make a 4km streamline product in the same way it provides simulated radars-- only so much computing power to fit within a tight time window of end-user demand). I drew in the cold front in blue, and you can clearly see the way the streamlines converge there. Northwest winds behind the front, and even stronger southerly flow out ahead of it. Now, the fact that the winds are over the open ocean helps them flow faster and stand out, so don't discount the 10-15kt winds locally-- it's not too shabby. It's also ushering in cooler air. Cooler air has a lower capacity to hold water without condensing it into clouds and precipitation, and note that the wind flow is coming across the Great Lakes. Add too that the mountains can provide extra lift (kind of like as if it's its own front), and we have ourselves a solid case for afternoon clouds, and some spot showers. Of course, we'll have to see how that all plays out. Eventually this same wind flow will wring out all the moisture available, and we'll get to some sunny skies.

Here are the temperatures we're looking at in the models...

GFS - Max Temps - Wednesday GFS - Max Temps - Thursday GFS - MIN Temps - Friday AM

Don't get too freaked out by that last map-- it's minimum temperatures, and not highs that I stuck in there... I did it for a reason though: I wanted to show what the coolest night of the episode will be. Highs on Thursday won't even get out of the 60s most places, which is a stark contrast to the mid 80s of yesterday. By Friday morning, Elkins is poised to bottom out in the upper 30s, and certainly the Canaan Valley right along with it. Now, will this translate to frost sneaking down into the southern lowland hollows? I doubt it, but if it's going to happen, this would be the morning. We have plenty of time to watch and see if this air modifies warmer in the models. (Or colder I suppose) ;-)

Here are your tracking maps for the day...

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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