7-13 Update - Tastes of the tropics

If the models are to be believed, it's going to rain every day for the next week. It just might...

Update (9:30am) - Wonderfully steady and beneficial rains are making their way to parched areas today, carried along by a very gentle influx of high moisture air. Here's a map of current 'precipitable water' with the radar overlaid:

Current Precipitable Water
w/ Doppler

I offset a yellow arrow to indicate the direction of the nudging of the best precipitable water. It's no wonder the plants are getting a nice juicy experience today. By the way, "precipitable water" isn't a maximum or minimum amount of expected rainfall, but a relative indication of what's available in the sky (and a good benchmark for who's going to get it).


Update (7-13) - The forecast is still on track. Check out the tracking maps below to see the fetch of moisture riding in slowly northward. Today will have a much heightened risk of showers and storms, but at the same time we won't be seeing a big threat for severe weather. Downpours, spot flooding, and power hits would be the bigger risks.

Today we'll be expecting to see the most widespread shower action. Hopefully everyone will get a piece, as these are all beneficial rains without too many of the drawbacks that can come with such weather.


A good Thursday to one and all :-)

As we've been talking about this week, we're now entering a new chapter in our Summer weather, one that normally stops by earlier but has been on the sidelines because of our growing drought conditions. Well, this is going to put at least a little dent into it, while never giving us a full-day washout.

It's time for a taste of the tropics...

Yeah, temperatures are hot in the afternoon-- but it's mid July... It's supposed to be hot. We'll be hanging out in the mid to upper 80s, exactly where we belong. Not only that, we'll be talking a milky hazy sunshine for 80% of the day. Just like in the tropics, we're only going to be dogged by these showers and storms for minor parts of the day. Naturally, if that time just so happens to be when the little leaguers take the field... then perhaps it's not so wonderful.

The NAM breaks down one theme of the rain showers:

NAM - Thursday Afternoon NAM - Friday Afternoon

This imagery makes it look like there won't be a whole lot of action out there, and what does show up is focused more to the west. Most of the day on this model is dry, but the flare-ups happen at the typical hours of 2-7pm.

The GFS model is somewhat hilarious, but also somewhat curious:

GFS - Precipitation - Next 7 Days

I put a whole week in there for effect...and each image is from the late afternoon of each day. Rain threats each day of the week..? This model is certainly saying it. Personally I'm favoring the more specificity of the NAM model, but that's because I search for some element of organization or pattern if I can find some. To help sort out the mess between the two, let's look (again) at the 5-day precipitation prognosis put out by the HPC...

HPC - 5 Day Precipitation Projection - Through Sunday

This shows the result of what looks to be a nice blend of both models' perspectives. We've got what results from many days of scattered afternoon storms, with a focus in Kentucky rather than West Virginia or Ohio.

The main threats here will be the power hits, because in the haste for restoration efforts on such a massive scale, perhaps the current situation in some areas are somewhat fragile (meaning it's easier for the power to go out in future events). Spot flooding is also a real concern because there's not a whole lot of steering currents to help move these storms along. But, we're not looking at all day wash-outs all over the place.

Just one-hour washouts in scattered places :-) (including where you live)

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!


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