The Warmth Rolls On...

Temperatures continue to be well above normal throughout the week. The chance of severe weather becomes heightened, but primarily only for folks in the Mississippi River valley.

It's Monday...Back to the grind everyone... Well, maybe not me just yet. Still getting used to this 4 kids at home bit (I've been seeing all of your wonderful comments on Facebook-- y'all are quite gracious :-)

But duty calls... must keep the blog going :-)

Here's a song that's appropriate for the weather this week:

 Who here can sing Billy Idol in the car without curling up their lip? ... Didn't think so. :-)

Okay...It's an appropriate song for today (and this week) because even the low temperatures overnight are going to be close to what we would normally get for a high temperature. Here's the weather pattern that's responsible for this (we've talked about this before, because it's a rather stubborn pattern more typical of summer):

HPC - Surface Map - Monday HPC - Surface Map - Tuesday

Typical set-up: Ridge in the east, trough in the west, battle line setting up in the middle (between "tornado alley" and the Mississippi River). So long as we don't get those stray slow-moving thunderstorms, the advantage for us are the unseasonably warm temperatures (well, for those who love summer):

HPC - Max Temps - Weds HPC - Max Temps - Thurs HPC - Max Temps - Sun

I put Sunday up there to show you that even after what's left of this system comes by our area, the temperatures don't look to get down below normal. There's sometimes a "bias" where HPC is often too warm when systems pass us by, so we'll have to keep this one in mind.

That system we've been tracking since a few days ago continues to be more of a threat out west compared to here, but at least some part of it will stumble across the finish line. For those who like dry weather, that area of high pressure just to our east will be able to stave off this system until the second half of this week. Here's the GFS:

GFS - Tuesday Evening GFS - Saturday Morning

The best dynamics for severe weather are much more apparent with this storm on Tues/Weds out west, and it looks like it loses a little off the top by the end of the week. The Storm Prediction Center thinks so too. The end of the week is a little too far out to be certain, but they'll be watching for storms in the same area on Tuesday:

Just in case things pop in our local area today, here are the tracking tools :-)

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

 From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports

 

Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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