The beginning of another heat wave...

Summer hasn't started yet... but indeed it has (you know what I mean)... It's all sunscreen and water bottles from here on out, but the mountains still get a shot at storms because of the heat.

Happy Tuesday to one and all...

Summer "officially" starts tomorrow at 7:09pm, but we all know it's been a little hot around here. In truth we did have a cool spell in there to start June, but now that's a faded memory.

Expect high temperatures to make their move toward 90-degrees today, and beyond for Wednesday and Thursday. Here's what the maps look like:

WRF - Surface - Tuesday PM WRF - Aloft - Tuesday PM

These two maps give a multi-dimensional look at the weather moving in. Both at the surface and aloft we have a strong area of high pressure in the vicinity. At the surface we've got a big area of high pressure getting into position in the Western Atlantic (very typical for hot weather scenarios). This will help block all approaching storms into Canada instead of coming through the Ohio Valley. Aloft, in the mid-levels of the atmosphere we've got a large area of high pressure too-- but right over us. This will also help block all approaching storms into Canada. The height lines in the right-hand map can serve as a good approximation of temperatures below. You see the number "588" in Iowa, demarking the line going up through the midwest into Canada? Lop the "5" off and you have "88". Our temperatures (generally) look to exceed that number if this approximation is going to work. Hence yet another indication of our warmth this week. This weather pattern is going to be very stubborn, and has been each time it shows up.

But, it's not going to be all dry. During the prime heating hours of the day we'll be looking at these temperatures crossing a threshold where thunderstorms will fire up (commonly refered to as the "convective temperature"). As said at other times on this blog, this feature is most pronounced in the mountains and initially focused there as the storms can make use of the extra oomph provided by the elevation.

Here's what the NAM has for us:

NAM - Tuesday AM NAM - Tuesday Mid-Afternoon

The showers are gone in the morning and the ground heats up. Then "magically" in the afternoon we'll be getting the pop-ups in the mountains. Don't look for a whole lot of them, probably enough to bother that handful of folks who picked today to stain the deck because of the forecast ;-)

Going forward into the next few days, you can pretty-much cut and paste this forecast right in, but remember that the places that don't get rain will be inching warmer. When we finally do see more widespread showers return later in the week (notice on the 7-day graphic below), go ahead and pencil in thunder with each arriving shower.

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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