10/10 Update - The coldest air so far does not hit everyone hard, and warmer days approach

This morning features the best opportunity for some of us to hit "freeze" territory for the first time, but others will be shielded by fog. Expect a nice rebound for the afternoon, with a gradual warm-up heading to the weekend.

October 10 Update - Not as cold this morning, and as expected the clouds are approaching from the west. Expect a few scraggly showers to stumble through this afternoon, but they will be of little consequence. It's the air behind this front that has our attention. Like the maps below, we'll once again be watching the 'radiational cooling' settle in. Thursday morning should end up being the coldest yet around the region, with near freezing temperatures along I-64, and interior Ohio approaching the upper 20s.

The National Weather Service has issued a FREEZE WATCH for this occasion (tomorrow morning), and you can see that on the maps below. It can get confusing, so just remember that the Freeze situation is for tomorrow morning, and not today (though today will be quite chilly enough for the kids waiting for the AM bus)

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Shiver me timbers! It's a chilly Tuesday morning :-)

Today starts off with an interesting set-up of weather for the local area. A departing storm system (from yesterday) has cleared out many of the clouds, with the exception of counties close to the mountains. Radiational cooling will set in where the skies are clear, pushing the temperatures down to the dewpoints. Current projections of this value (which is much slower to change compared to the actual air temperature, so it's a good gauge of overnight lows in clear-sky scenarios) are as follows:

NAM - Dew Points - Tuesday AM

Once again, just like last night, pay attention to the continuously updating maps below that will show current temperatures and any/all watches and warnings for frosts/freezes.

A saving grace that will ride in just as these dewpoints are reached, particularly for folks in southern Kentucky on up Corridor-G through to the Kanawha Valley will be the fog. This insulates the ground a bit and stunts the heat loss through radiational cooling. Now, temperatures will already be pretty chilly at this point, but we're talking about staying above freezing at this point :-)

Here's a map where you can track the fog. Naturally this will only be useful in these early morning - late morning hours:

GOES-13 Fog Product (Experimental) GOES-13 Fog Depth Estimate

The deeper the "fog depth" on the right-hand map, the less likely it's going to break early :-)

Get those kids dressed in layers though, because sunshine will eventually burn off the fog and low clouds, rebounding the temperatures to a wonderful contrast to today. How about the 60s in the afternoon? It's still not warmer than normal, but considering we were around 20-degrees colder in spots for much of the day yesterday, it will help quite a bit.

Next chance for rain...

The wind pattern in the upper levels of the atmosphere, also refered to as the "steering currents" and the "jet stream" is presenting a "zonal flow". This is a fast-moving west-to-east format that prevents big storms from forming but also moves things in and through at a fluid pace. If you look at the 7-Day forecast you'll notice near alternating days of sunshine and shower activity. Don't expect these showers to amount to much, but it's a good sign that the pattern is ...the way it is.

NAM - Surface Winds - Wednesday PM NAM - Precipitation - Wednesday PM NAM - Winds By Altitude - Wednesday PM

Yes, that far-right image is a little long... but it's important to see how the winds stack by altitude. You can clearly see the swift steering currents aloft, and they are separated somewhat at the surface. Nevertheless, from the left-hand map we can gather that there will be some of that fast-moving air mixing down to the surface (that whole 'shear' thing we've talked about). Not too breezy, but if you sense the winds picking up at times, now you know where it's coming from. As far as the actual moisture on Wednesday, it leaves a lot to be desired (though I doubt anyone's complaining).

Another thing that will be a treat for those who like the sunny and warm weather will be what's coming later in the week. Not completely dry (as the 7-day evidences below), but getting some of the warmth back that early October is known to have can't be all bad, right? Here are some of the numbers:

GFS - Max Temps - Friday GFS - Max Temps - Saturday GFS - Max Temps - Sunday

You know there's going to be some great hours for outdoor weather in there somewhere! These kinds of days will be in shorter and shorter supply going forward. We touched 80 last week... now we're happy getting back to the 70s. Before you know it, even the 50s of yesterday will be considered 'warm' :-)

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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