Welcome to your Tuesday. :-)
Thank you for stopping by the blog. I appreciate all your comments and participation over the past several months, particularly despite all the technical changes, relocation of the blog, etc. etc. I can only expect things will be more stable from here on out. Just in time for winter, right?
Speaking of winter, our latest weather picture for this week certainly doesn't seem very winter-like, but there just might be a light at the end of the tunnel for the snow-lovers out there. First thing's first though: Let's look at the weather picture in the short range:
|HPC - Tuesday PM|
Given that yesterday's highs are already running warmer than the models (78° at 4pm in Huntington, 77° in Charleston), we can easily expect to continue well above normal this week. At first, the southwesterly fetch is a gentle but persistent one, but later in the week we get a little more serious.
|SREF - Temperature Plumes - Through Thursday|
This graphic represents the results of multiple models on the temperatures (otherwise known as an 'ensemble'). Following the morning chill of yesterday, we have entered a new regime that puts us around 10-degrees above normal for several days in a row.
|GFS - Thursday Morning||GFS - Friday Morning|
So here's where it starts getting interesting... Our actual weather experience won't be that different from Wednesday-- the warm air advection will have pretty much reached its peak (with very little difference in temperature left across much of the Ohio Valley and points south). By Friday you can start to see the plunge of cold air flying in behind the front itself. The cold front is in blue, and the colored arrows indicate the advancement of cold and warm air. The main reason why this is interesting is because this storm system is already well up into Canada, and stalling out, but the cold air plunge continues to stay strong. This becomes very fertile breeding grounds for secondary development (i.e., a new system to take over...
|GFS - Saturday Night||CMC - Sunday Night|
IMPORTANT NOTE: The above maps are from two different models, depicting future events in different ways, independent of each other. Don't look at this as a time-wise progression from one to the next.
Anytime we're looking 6-7 days ahead in computer models-- especially in winter, the model physics love to take whatever it's given, and create big storms. It's fun to look at, but can generate some really unstable solutions. Case in point-- the Canadian (CMC model). If you look at yesterday's blog post, you'll see something drastically different-- namely, a developing snow event. This time around, the model retains the cold-air plunge, but generates a near-insane storm system barreling toward the Jersey coastline (and combining forces with what is currently known as "Tropical Storm Sandy") in the vein of the "perfect storm" of a Halloween now more than 20 years ago.
...Don't hold your breath.
At this point, the GFS is trending away from such extremes, and pointing toward a solution where the cold air does eventually make it here, but not to a strong enough point to start talking white-stuff.
However, because 70-degree days in October are boring, and because the volatility in the extended period could still swing back towards the 'interesting', we'll be watching and updating on this particular scenario. If the Canadian model verified, what a headliner that would be :-)
Check out the 7-day forecast below for more of our perspective on the coming days' weather.
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!