Update (6:00pm) - An initial line of showers is coming in ahead of the front. It's falling apart (as expected), but when it lines up with the breezes we've been seeing it certainly could look a little dicey. Don't get alarmed... currently there are no severe weather watches or warnings in our area. There is a wind advisory in effect for our far western zones... just further indication that you'll have plenty more to rake in the coming days :-)
Update (10/14) - An update to the forecast/blog post from yesterday... Everything is on track for today. We still have our storm system inching in from the west, but the bulk of the initial moisture rides over-top of us. We'll see the breezes pick up along with the temperatures in the afternoon, but rain showers will hold off through the end of the day. It'd be a perfect day to get some yardwork done, but if you're thinking about raking the leaves, you'll be sorely disappointed when there'll be double on the ground by Monday! The rain itself is not going to be a big deal. Here's the NAM on this one:
|NAM - Overnight Tonight||NAM - Monday Late AM|
You can see the curl in the temperature lines (the thin black ones) on the left-hand map, so there is some juice to go along with the winds driving foward the frontal line. However, these showers will be approaching at an inopportune time for the maintaining of any storm bands that develop in the heat of the afternoon. Nevertheless, if you hear some thunder to go along with those breezes overnight, you'll know where it's coming from. If any updates to this post need to occur, they will happen below.
Happy Saturday everyone! You've made it!
This morning is the last of the chilly ones, with temperatures expected to dip back down into the 30s. But by now, this is old hat, as we've experienced this a few times this week. If you haven't already protected the plants or done what you needed to do in the garden--- well, what's another frosty morning then, eh? :-)
Here's the current surface map scenario that will take us through the weekend:
|HPC - Surface Map - Saturday PM|
The high pressure that cleared us out yesterday is now heading east, but the wind field is still channeling in warm air from a couple different directions across the Ohio Valley. The result will be felt most noticeably today, and in the warmest fashion tomorrow. There will be many folks out there that will start off in the 30s, but finish in the 70s...How bout that.
There's also something we should probably talk about now that the fall foliage season is nearing its peak locally (next weekend perhaps) and coming off its peak in the higher WV mountains: Fire danger. There are three elements to a fire danger forecast-- (1) Persistent dry ground; (2) High amounts of sunshine or warmth; (3) Winds. It's that last one that's the biggest issue, because that's what would spread any normal brushfire into something ridiculous.
|NAM - Winds - Saturday AM||NAM - Winds - Sunday AM|
Normally, I don't talk much about the wind part of the forecast when I'm on the air. It's just not really all that breezy around here, and outside of hunting season there's not a lot of interest in what a 5 mph wind is doing (and even then, a light wind is going to be a very fickle one, so it would be impossible to specify a direction like that). If it's going to be breezy, we'd talk about it. Well, on Sunday, I can see "breezy" being thrown around. If you've been keeping tabs on the forecast this week, you know that Sunday also happens to be the warmest day of the week, and on the tail end of a stretch of dry weather too. Adding that all up, you know you should be obeying the local burn ordinances. Typically, this means no burning until dark (when the winds die down and the temperatures cool off).
But the afternoons are certainly going to be nice around here. Those fresh winds to our west on Sunday are there because there's a strong storm system entering the Ohio Valley, but taking itself head-long through the Great Lakes rather than sweeping across. This means "warm sector" weather on Sunday. Some of the models keep trying to throw out indicators that would make me say "80-degrees", but I think keeping it just shy in the upper 70s will be good-- that is unless we make it to the mid-70s today. Anything over 75 today, and 80 looks better and better tomorrow.
The storm system that is responsible for the breezes and the warmth will gradually sweep its cold-front tail through here, but that's not until the weekend is over with, and there doesn't seem to be a whole lot left over for this thing to work with.
|GFS - Monday PM||GFS - Tuesday AM|
So Monday has a few showers in it, then by Tuesday the system continues to pull away through the Canadian Maritimes. The next thing to look for will be the cold air return following the front. Notice that 0-line coming back down the Appalachian trail (the thick black line) early Sunday. That one figures to return at least a little chill to the morning commute. However, it doesn't have that tight of a grip in the region, as warmer air is already returning to the Northern Plains. Watch the 7-Day Forecast graphic below for an indication on how this plays out for your temperatures.
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!