Back to Monday... After a nice break, I'm back in the saddle for your morning weathercasting. Hopefully I still know my way around the building.
First thing's first: We already know about the mild and dry weather we've been having, but now let's talk about the showers that are finally coming our way. The system that plowed through the Central and Northern Plains states with the severe weather continues its trek well to our north. Not only has this meant pleasantly mild weather for the tri-state, but it also means a greater separation of the storm system from it's decent juice in the Gulf of Mexico. Whether we'll actually see some good thunderstorms will be all about timing. The heat of the day vs. the actual approach of the front. Here's how things break down:
|GFS - Monday 8pm||NAM - Lifted Index - Monday 2pm|
The best lift for storm development looks to occur a little before the main line gets here, so there will be a gradually weakening environment for thunderstorms as this system gets closer. Therefore the best spots for the thunder will be in our far western zones this time around. (The mountains can always supply a little extra oomph by way of elevational forcing, but by then it may be after dark, so we'll have to see about that one). Overall, not a whole lot of rain arriving, but hopefull it does the trick to wash out the pollen for a few fortunate folks.
---Another Way Out There Storm Tangent---
Like we have talked about before, there are some more interesting brewin's going on in the later stage of the forecast period (like, this coming weekend). These models love to play around with the Day-7 stuff. But, the last time around we actually did get the snow we called for in the mountains, so let's just keep an eye on this one shall we? One thing in its favor is that two of the main long-range models are basically showing the same scenario:
|GFS - Surface Map - Sunday||ECMWF - Surface Map - Sunday|
|GFS - Precipitation - Sunday||ECWMF - Moisture - Sunday|
Some common features to point out: Each model shows a well-developed low pressure system deepening close to the NYC area with another dip in the atmospheric thicknesses below the all-important "540-line" (the dashed red line in the top two maps). We've talked about this line before, but it represents a general approximation in average cases for a dividing line between rain and snow. In the bottom two pictures, the first dashed line behind (north of) the solid black line is the -2°C temperature line at the 850mb level (about 5000 feet in the air). Both of these together would tend to model more light snow for the mountains. But, like I've said before, these models absolutely love to create a storm out of the initial data it's given when you're 150-hours beyond the last known 'real' values. That's a ton of math moving everything around in the whole world that long to see what happens. If anyone knows about "the Butterfly Effect" or "Chaos Theory", those two terms come to mind in things like this :-)
Because of the approaching showers/storms, we'll put up the full range of tracking tools today. If you end up with a little something, feel free to post it in the comments. I may make a few updates if necessary and if time permits.
Update 10:30am - The Storm Prediction Center has part of our area in a "Slight Risk" for severe weather this afternoon. Here's the breakdown:
|SPC - Hail Threat||SPC - Wind Threat||SPC - Tornado Threat|
I suppose it should go without saying that gusty winds will be the main threat should any of these storms turn severe. At this point though, it looks like these storms will be stumbling across our area more than anything else. The rain is coming in at a quicker clip though, so some can expect rain a little after lunch, while others will still get showers during the evening commute. As far as thunder goes, it doesn't look too menacing right now, that's for sure.
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!