Thursday weather thoughts...

It's not Jack Handey, but hey it's been a little quiet around here.

Hello again everyone! Thanks for stopping by the weather blog. :-)

These past few days have been a nice thing to behold for fans of non-cold weather. Highs have been running 5-10 degrees above normal for the region, and actually for just about all of the eastern-half of the country too. Rain hasn't been too prevalent since that Saturday a while back. I guess those seeding lawns aren't too happy with it, but a jog through the park shows a lot of folks that are taking it all in stride.

Some thoughts :-)

1. This government shut-down is annoying (I know, news flash)... But it's not in the way you'd think I guess. I mean, I had been wanting to talk about the results of a recent coronal mass ejection (CME) that has generated beautiful aurora even viewable in the United States.

Awesome stuff... So when this kind of thing happens, I usually point to a link that models the availability of viewable aurora to see how far south it can go. However, it's now "down" due to dependent "resources" affected by the government shutdown. There are other actual forecast model products that are falling under the same label and as such are unavailable to the end-user...

...Unless they work for the National Weather Service. Nice. "Essential" personnel get the data and others don't. It's almost like people are unplugging computers for spite ;-)   ...Fortunately the internet is a vast and beautiful thing, so there are a bunch of workarounds. But if you've been working off many coded feed retrieval programs, you may have to deal with outages until its all resolved.

2. Perhaps the Government Shut-Down may be forced to a conclusion because (of all things) a Tropical system?

There's a system in the northern Caribbean that is going to make its way into the Gulf of Mexico. Currently it's not forecast to bomb into something incredible (though that would be the place to see it happen), but when/if we do get a Tropical Storm to form out of it, there aren't many ways for it to not end up directly impacting the US. Current projections having it coming into the Florida panhandle on Sunday morning. You can imagine how easy that thing is to turn right into a political football :-)

3. The next "real" rain shot for the area for us looks to be Sunday as well.

So okay, back to the local weather, we'll be initially get these broken bits and pieces of energy out ahead of a storm system lumbering across the Mississippi Valley in the coming days. During the prime heating hours of the afternoon we'll see an isolated risk for these light showers, but overall it's not a big deal for the Thursday/Friday time-frame:

These showers are forming in the 'warm sector' out ahead of the main front. This area is marked by above-normal temperatures, increasing humidity, and mostly dry hours of the day (meaning, just a scattering). It's likely that a lot of us are spared entirely from these showers, but there is a favoring of our western/mountain counties.

We have been tracking that back-edge cold front of this system, as it's going to provide the best risk for area-wide rain that we've had in a little while.

So this is interesting-- if this tropical system stays together, there's thought that it contributes a bunch of moisture to the WV mountains early next week. The Euro isn't as bullish on the tropical system staying together, but it still also has whatever it can contribute coming up the Appalachians during the day Monday. We'll certainly have to keep an eye on this one just in case, regardless it'd be more rain that we've seen in days.

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Have a great day everyone!

-B

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