WSAZ - Blogs - Brandon Butcher

Tracking Sun and Thunder On Mother's Day Weekend

It's not all bad this weekend, but you do need to have a plan in case your outdoor events are visited by showers.

Friday is here!

Unfortunately, so are the showers. Again.

We're going to monitoring prowling storms in addition to sunshine today, because both will make an appearance overhead at times. Here's the NAM breakdown of the Mother's Day weekend:

NAM - Friday Morning NAM - Friday Evening NAM - Saturday Morning

As this first front arrives, we'll see scattered showers and thunderstorms cluster up with partly sunny skies in between. Temperatures will be a little tricky in this mess, approaching 80 in the sun, but falling back through the 60s in rain. There is a slight risk for severe weather too, mainly of the gusty wind / small hail variety:

Storm Prediction Center - Severe Weather Potential (all types)

By Mother's day itself, the first front will be through, and the next one approaches. This one is not so much rainfall as it is a deep shot of cold air. It may be tough getting used to as well. Again, the NAM model:

NAM - Saturday Evening NAM - Sunday Morning

The thicker black line on the above maps indicate the temperature at the 850mb level (about 5,000 feet, often considered the base of cloud level) reaching the 0°C line. The dashed lines behind it are numbers that are below freezing. In May. On Mother's Day. Eesh. The colder air first becomes apparent in the afternoon, with some breezes pushing us back through the 60s and 50s. Not the greatest outdoor weather for a mid-May gathering. The deepest part of the chill arrives Monday morning, and sticks around into early Tuesday. Frost is certainly on the table here, and while it's not guaranteed it's a good idea to take precautions with tender vegetation just in case. To help keep your sanity, I want to let you know at the outset that temperatures will bounce back nicely by Tuesday afternoon.

GFS - Min Temps - Monday Morning GFS - Min Temps - Tuesday Morning GFS - Max Temps - Tuesday Afternoon

So all is not lost, but you do have to pick your spots :-)

A big thank you to all the moms out there for your hard work (my wife and my mom in particular if I could highlight a couple). I'm sure all the fellas out there have a sizeable 'to-do' list this weekend ;-)

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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