Update - Tracking a break in the storms and the heat-- but we're not there yet

Temperatures going forward will not be as hot as yesterday, and there will be more opportunities for storms, but a time is coming where we can noticeably cool down and get a dry day or two in here

Updates Below (most recent update 9:45pm)

We have made it to Friday!

The creepy crawly showers of the late evening are slowly percolating into the southern mountains-- and given the large amount of persistent warmth and humidity we'll see them continue to be encouraged rather than dissipate through the early morning hours. Just for giggles, I've included the 4km simulated radar image of the showers-- even though I know many of you won't even be seeing this post until after these rains have wet the roads and left :-)

NAM 4km Simulated Radar - Early Friday AM

The dark arrows are what I've drawn in there to indicate the momentum of the developed showers that will carry it up the Appalachian trail much longer than they might have otherwise been able to stay alive because of how juicy and hot the air was yesterday. Following this we'll get another break (and another humid/warm day). Later Friday into Saturday a front slides into the region, focusing showers but also offering hope and change (to borrow a term)...

WRF - Friday Night WRF - Saturday Night

As is typical in summertime (for all intents and purposes we might as well call it summertime :-), "fronts" have less meaning these days, and instead the weather picture is essentially taken over by the lines of storms they generate. These have a life of their own and will often move out ahead of a front and eventually break down. By the time the 'actual' front arrives, there may not be any storm energy left along it to trigger anything more than scattered clouds. The difficulty for the forecaster will be the timing of the end of the showers as well as pinpointing the specific time any one location will get hit with a storm. Suffice it to say we'll be in that 'zone' from later tonight through much of Saturday before we come out the other side. Another clue for us will be in the total moisture forecast:

HAS Precipitation Forecast HPC Precipitation Forecast

 The leaner these maps look, the more likely each area may only get one or two storms, but when the greens and yellows show up, the threat for 'training' creeps in. "Training" is when multiple storms move over the same area in succession (like train cars). Spot flooding would be a problem if we get this. There are three opportunities for storms over the next two days (early morning, Friday evening, and then Saturday). For those who have outdoor plans or are sampling any one of several great events in the area, including the Kentucky Derby and the Wild Turkey Fest, don't go changing them...Despite the threat of rain there will be several hours of dry and good-enough weather to be outside. Just remember the history of the past few rainy days as a guide-- in terms of hours of the day, not a whole lot of time was occupied by showers.

Cooler, drier weather coming

Looking ahead down the road, we'll have another wave of showers and storms setting up early next week. It's what comes beyond that we want to see :-)

GFS - Thursday AM EURO - Thursday AM

The Euro and the GFS differ a little on the details (anyone surprised?), but the gist is the same-- a cold front sweeping through and ushering in a Canadian-born high pressure system that will keep things dry and cool for at least a little while. The GFS "looks" cleaner on this one, but the Euro has a better track record in the longer range.

Anyone up for below-normal temperatures? Typically we are in the low-70s this time of year, and indications are we may have a day or two in our future that just might stay in the 60s.

Today we're still tracking the showers and trying to beat the heat, so those continuously updating maps below will come in handy for those trying to pick the perfect time to mow the lawn :-)

Update (9:45pm) - A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for many parts of our area (see maps below) because of the arriving showers coming in from the north and west that we were talking about earlier. A few of these storms have at times gone to 'severe' levels, but this has primarily been a hail/rain thing with some gusts. Current flash flood guidance puts at or below 2" of rain in a 6-hour period to set off culvers and creeks-- that, folks, is some saturated ground. Some locations can barely absorb 1" of rain before flooding occurs. Be careful tonight, as water may unknowingly cross roadways in the dark, or a viaduct could again get plugged in heavy rains. Just like early this morning though, rapid risers are rapid receders, so hopefully we can get back to bank level soon enough once the rain quits tomorrow.

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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