Good Tuesday morning...
The brisk winds of the overnight have sent the temperatures down roughly 30-degrees from their peak around 60. Instead of the 50s, it's the freezing-mark where we start our day. Get the kids ready, because the difference will be chillingly noticeable.
Our day begins with high pressure nosing into the tri-state, but a storm brewing to our south will have our attention for Wednesday:
|HPC - Surface Map - Tuesday PM|
Any early sunshine will eventually be replaced with high clouds streaming in. Temperatures today will be seasonable: right in the 40s. This sets up another situation with the rain/snow line snaking through our area when the moisture finally gets here. This is a breakdown using the NAM model:
|NAM - Precipitation Type - Wednesday Mid-Day||NAM - Precipitation Type - Wednesday Mid-Afternoon||NAM - Precipitation Type - Wednesday Mid-Night|
I've drawn in the approximate location of the low pressure center during the event. Wind rotates counter-clockwise around an area of low pressure, so out ahead of it would be all the warm advection (and therefore rain), and behind it comes the cold air (and snow). Locations that are elevated or far enough north may be able to stay just out of the reach of the warm air, but the best moisture will be closer to the center.
Here's what the different models are showing for snowfall projections:
|GFS - Projected Snowfall||NAM - Projected Snowfall|
Click on either image for a larger pop-up.
Personally, I like the arrangement of snowfall totals of the NAM (as in, where the snow is and where it isn't), but I still think it's a bit too heavy. We'll lose some in the changeover because of the initial push of rainfall. The GFS, meager as it is, is actually trending snowier (well, I use that word loosely). Overall, this event may not even get Winter Weather Advisories for most counties-- though the WV mountains have a good shot at 2-4". Still, a new coating of snow just might greet you for Valentine's Day morning. That could enhance the romance, or get one or more of you annoyed. ;-)
There will be another blog post before this system comes through, so we'll have another look at it. Also, there's another storm system lining up for this coming weekend-- and that one looks all snow (and cold). Stay tuned...
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!