Updates Below - (most recent 5:00pm)
Finally! It's Friday :-)
Our weather pattern we've been in has NOT given the weather forecaster much love. It's been a tricky period of telling folks that at times it will be sunny, other times rainy, with the difficulty level going up significantly with any attempt to be more specific of when / where across our large broadcast region. So, to report that the pattern will now be chainging-- well I do like that :-)
|HPC - Friday PM|
There will be two things happening simultaneously today that will evolve our persistent weather pattern into something new. First, high pressure from the north will be leaning, pushing, sitting on, etc. this front overhead that continues to be rather stubborn. Eventually, it will win out, and that line sags south taking the primary focus of moisture with it. Secondly, an impulse along the front, but to our east, will start developing into an actual storm system, set to bother folks in New England for a bit (they can have it). Both of these items point to better skies coming to town, though it doesn't look like we'll have a clean sweep for everyone.
Here's a sampling of what the NAM is calling for over the next few days:
|NAM - Friday PM||NAM - Saturday PM||NAM - Sunday PM|
Friday - The front is sagging south through the region, but there's still a bunch of low-level moisture hanging around the place. In addition, a weak impulse comes in from the west around mid-day to agitate whatever's left into a few showers. Patchy fog will be an issue in the areas that got a little more rain, but as we go through the day, the moisture will gradually get squeezed southward. If you're in the south, just remember you had a good run of mainly dry skies for the past couple days. If you are in the north, you have the best shot for a dry night of High School Football games :-)
Saturday - As the front departs and the storm to the northeast gets going, a general windflow comes in from the north. This will pick up some lake moisture and result in a few clouds coming our way. The threat for showers will be low, though those locations toward the mountains will be the best candidate to squeeze out a shower or two. This is good news overall, as it is Airport Day at Big Sandy Regional, Coal Heritage day is going on over in Racine, and of course Greek Fest is in full swing in Huntington. Ritter Park ampitheater also has their many bands set to perform as part of the art and music festival. If there's any I've missed, feel free to slip them into the comments section ;-)
Sunday - Sunday appears to be the more complicated forecast day, but even then we appear to be on the outside edge of most shower activity. Here's an image from the GFS that will show what I'm talking about:
|GFS - 700mb Chart - Sunday PM|
The center of circulation is just to our north along Lake Erie, and the wind-flow around it has alternating bands of dry air and wet air. As these bands spiral around, we'll see periods of the day in those clouds, but also get some time in the Sun. The best shot for showers here will be far to our north (out of our area). Therefore, there will be plenty of people out there that will make it through both weekend days without rainfall (ooopah!) Great news for the Path to the Cure event happening at St. Marys in downtown Huntington on Sunday. I'll be down there doing the 5k walk/run (hopefully more of the latter)... say 'hi' if you like! :-)
Temperatures through the period are going to be fantastic-- and with one good reason: Do you remember last year at this very point? We had 5" of snow in the mountains up by Timberline and Snowshoe, and the high temperature in Huntington (at last year's PATH event) was a mere 43-degrees. It'll be one of those rare times when a prediction of 30-degrees warmer will be met with smiles :-)
Update (8:00am) - A quick post to highlight the arcing (we actually call it "bowing") line of strong thunderstorms moving east in southern Kentucky toward Pikeville. It's been holding together for several hours this morning, so there's no reason to doubt it will come into the Pikeville area in about a half hour with the same gusto. These are not declared "severe" storms (they are shy of the criteria necessary), but the bowing clearly indicates internal wind gusts. Since the storm line is advancing eastward at about 35-mph, expect those kinds of gusts when the front part of the line hits you. Rainfall estimates put you around 1-1.5"/hr rates during the 20 minutes or so you'll be in it-- that's a solid downpour. Oh yeah, frequent lightning too (the folks at Belfry High School learned all about that this week! Be safe :-)
Update (5:00pm) - Scattered showers are still working through the region, all ignited by the last bulge of vorticity coming through aloft agitating the surface humidity. The northern extent of the rain shifted about 10-15 miles farther north than I had been forecasting, which instead of "along and south of I-64" seeing the rains, southern Ohio got worked into the mix. Check out some of the rainfall totals below. Many spots from Huntington south to Pikeville got more than 1-1.5".
The stubborn pace of these showers has been disconcerting to say the least, effectively backing up plans for breaking clouds in Ohio by the time football kickoff occurs. But, I wanted to mention an added wrinkle to the mix: Fog. The rainwater will just hang around tonight in puddles and lawns, and contribute to early morning cloud-cover that belies the sunshine that was previously predicted. We will get there eventually, it will just take patience. :-)
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!