WSAZ - Blogs - Brandon Butcher

Tracking some unsettled weather ahead, but it's not all bad

A few showers sweep through (and flakes too) this morning, but the overall trend through Saturday morning will be one of improvement. That can change next week though.

Welcome to Friday-- you've made it through the week! ...And what a week it was.

Just a reminder, we've got our storm summary up on the blog for what was the historic superstorm that deeply impacted the region for several days this week. Also, feel free to peruse the wonderful pictures all of you have sent in to us during this time. We've got a spot up on Pinterest for more than 150 of them.

Turning our attention to the future, we've been looking at a few sneaky showers that will be slipping through in the morning hours.

NAM - Friday Morning NAM - Friday Afternoon

If you haven't noticed already, I'm very fond of using these hi-res NAM model maps for the short term forecast period. Not only is the precip in there, but also the 850mb temperatures (a few thousand feet up). In the winter time, a reading of about -2 or so is a good ballpark value for getting snow. In the fall, that number is higher, about -4 or -5. The higher elevations do not require it though. Anyway, notice the -3 line cutting down I-79 a little and dipping into the mountains. I suspect we'll see some flakes in the hills of Clay and Braxton counties, and of course in the elevated areas above 2000' that are east of the Tug river. Not looking at a whole lot though-- notice the whole thing is out of town before 2pm, and we'll be back to sunshine.

Morning Freeze...

High Pressure is still projected to nose in ever-so-nimbly in the early morning hours Saturday. While the approaching precipitation should keep most of us above freezing tonight, the theme for both mornings is that you should be keenly aware of the issues associated with re-freezing meltwater. Slick spots will be out there even if there was no precipitation during the day, etc. etc. Check out the 7-Day forecast below for the numbers each morning.

Looking ahead to Election Day...

Yesterday we were watching an unsettled pattern coming in. It's tamed out in the near term, but still looks a little more active later in the week.

GFS - Tuesday PM GFS - Wednesday PM

It appears that the "battleground" states that are going to have some weather issues are North Carolina and Virginia (depending on your view of what are battleground states). I hear the big one is Ohio, and the weather looks like a non-factor. A day later, the same system generates into a coastal nor'easter, taking a nice dig with the jet stream with another solid shot of vorticity taking it to the next level. Certainly not as strong as once-in-a-lifetime Sandy Super Frankenstorm (I'm having trouble figuring out what to call that thing), but another soggy time heading to southern New England. For us, it appears we'll be on the receiving end of the cold-air return, but that also gives us a shot at sunshine in the drier air.

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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