Tracking weak showers... It's like herding cats.

The opportunity for rain is still there, but it's on the way out.

It's back to Monday...

We're still tracking this tricky wanderer of a weak storm system, but at this point it's in it's last throes. The day today should remind us a bit of yesterday, with scattered showers and occasional cloud breaks.

HPC - Surface Map - Monday Afternoon

By the second-half of the day, most of the rain will be focused in places east of us, with some partly sunny skies returning. It's worth repeating that as far as "low" pressures go, this one would barely register.

The high pressure over New England will eventually beat this weak system into submission. By Wednesday, all the prevailing winds will flow out counter-clockwise from the center of the high without the slightest hint of another system. As this wind comes on-shore, it will deliver moisture-rich air from the Atlantic Ocean and start up those afternoon showers that trickle through the Appalachian Mountains, as so often does during the spring and summer.

NAM - Windfield - Wednesday Afternoon NAM - Precipitation - Wednesday Afternoon

Folks heading west for Derby Week will enjoy more pleasant conditions, though the temperatures may start riding up on you a little bit in the sunnier skies. I'm sure that's not as big of a deal.

What might become a big deal is the showers lurking for the main event Derby weekend (or for anyone else trying to enjoy the outdoors Saturday and Sunday coming up. The GFS is working on a cut-off stalling storm system that initially approaches with gusto before starting to fill in and fall apart toward the end of the weekend:

GFS - Saturday Afternoon GFS - Sunday Afternoon

The Euro is showing the same thing (actually only going with these 'bowling ball' systems across the whole US). Anyway, you can see how the models want this to play out: A gradually stalling system that becomes un-spun; with streams of moisture inflow alternating with dry air intrusions. Some get soaked while others get mild sunshine. These things are known for their persistency, so we'll have to see just how long we have to deal with it just off to our west.

6-10 Day Outlook - Temperature 6-10 Day Outlook - Precipitation

If the blobs of colder-than-normal and wetter-than-normal still want to line up in our neck-of-the-woods come next week, perhaps it's because we're still dealing with it ;-)

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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