Update (11/1 1:30am) - Be wary of this next line of storms coming in from the west (see the maps below) ... The whole thing is channeling those fast winds aloft and bringing a fraction of it down to the surface. This can mean a 60mph gust works down together with loud thunder. It's a quick-hitting bit though, and most shouldn't see the worst of the conditions for longer than 30 minutes or so.
In addition there is a slight tornado risk with these storms, though it's not the same as a typical tornado pattern. Usually what might spin up here is kind of like an eddy in an already fast flow. Like sticking an oar through the water and watching the swirls to either side. It's a caution to not get distracted by the possibility of a weak tornado, because the real issue going on are these gusty fall winds enhanced by the thunderstorms. There will be a lot of raking to do in the coming days-- unfortunately maybe some chain-sawing too.
Keep watch using the tracking maps below, and feel free to post any reports in the comments...
Update (5:00pm) - A lot of kiddos out there will be toughing it out this evening, and various communities have also altered their Trick-or-Treating plans and dates. Check out the latest on this on our specific Trick-or-Treat page here at WSAZ.COM.
Looking at the maps right now (as you can too below), the main line of showers are now crossing I-75 near Cincinatti on its way eastward to our region. The good news is that so far it's really not rising to a 'severe' level per se-- it's always been a question of relative misery over severity. The early candy-cravers will have the best weather: just occasional showers. As the evening wears on, eventually the rain will get steadier and the winds will get breezier but most if not all of us will be avoiding the severe weather during the 6p - 8p time. Later tonight things should get gusty with the actual front sweeping through. Certainly you should have a plan for rain though (which could challenge some costume ideas). Think about getting our free weather app for your smartphone-- it will help you build confidence with the kids out there. A couple of taps, and you see the radar and know where all the storms are at, and aren't :-)
Well we've arrived at another Halloween and the Trick-or-Treat'ers are chompin at the bit for another stab at some community candy. Last year featured Superstorm Sandy and it postponed the event until better skies prevailed. This year the weather is pretty good to start, but will go downhill in a hurry right-on-the-line.
HPC - Surface Map - Thursday Afternoon
The overall synopsis is a strong frontal system heading northeast into Canada, carried along by strong southerly winds. We'll be tracking the slow progression of the front and its attendant wind/rain all day long. Here are the main points:
1. Most of the day will be just fine - Everyone will be treated to semi-tropical air and occasional breezes that will pick up during the afternoon. Sunshine will be hard to come-by, but so will any errant shower that may briefly spot up out ahead of the main front.
2. Steady rain will impact some Trick-or-Treat'ers - As much as I'd like to see this avoided, the recent model runs have been making a clean sweep less and less likely. Naturally the western counties are more susceptible than the eastern ones, but here's how the Hi-Resolution NAM products show it:
Everyone from Athens, Ohio southwestward through to Olive Hill, KY (there-abouts) and folks in between should have a plan for rain showers and to get out early for the best possible conditions. However, even parts of West Virginia can see the rain come in for those getting a late to Trick-or-Treating. Note also some clearing spots right before the rain's arrival. That shouldn't be taken as a 'green light', but instead a caution-light because the energy will be pooling into what comes next.
3. Gusty winds and thunderstorms are both on the table - I don't want to be a downer, but it's important to at least be aware of the possibilities even if everyone still makes it out for a nice dry time.
SPC - Severe Weather Potential - Thursday Evening
These kinds of situation are usually on the way out as we get into November, so even the "slights" are good to watch for the rumblers. Naturally, it's no-good to be out walking a half-mile from home in the dark when the thunder rolls. You should be able to hear this coming though, as it should be near the front of the line as it arrives. If you get nothing-- all the better, but "if the thunder roars, head indoors".
The winds will be picking up with the steadier showers later in the day. I don't recommend doing any raking during the quieter part of Thursday. Just pick it back up this weekend after a pretty good dumping of new leaves on the ground. I know it will be colder, but it sure beats doing things all over again.
4. WSAZ provides an easy tool for you to stay safe and maximize your time out-doors - Using your SmartPhone, download the free WSAZ Weather App from your app store of choice. With just a couple touches of the finger (or even one), you can be taken instantly to the radar screen centered on your area. I use it all the time, and it goes a long way to boosting your confidence that one is going to be safe with the kids or that it's smart to start heading back for home.
I will update this post as needed, so feel free to check back. As always, here are your storm tracking maps below...
Have a great day everyone!