A good Thursday to one and all :-)
As we've been discussing this week, the showers are arriving in greater numbers today. Today and tomorrow will be the rainiest two days we've had in a while. It's owing to the moisture-rich storm that has already caused flooding in the Midwest now advancing to the tri-state area.
|HPC - Surface Map - Thursday Afternoon|
Anyone who caught a late-day downpour already knows the kind of thing we'll get today. Thunderstorms will also be a part of it, but severe weather is not expected to join us (fine with me). There is a risk for spot flooding, but it would primarily be in the typical areas prone to such things every time it rains hard.
Here's a look at our rainfall expectations:
|HAS Precipitation Forecast||HPC Precipitation Forecast|
This is more than enough to drag out the umbrellas, force cancellations, and the like.
The more complicated part is trying to spot the end-point for this rain. The models are indicating a break in the action coming during the weekend...
|NAM - Saturday AM||GFS - Sunday PM
The NAM is advertising a morning departure of the rain on Saturday, opening up the afternoon for the backyard barbecue. The GFS however, is a bit more stodgy and prefers a scenario where moisture hangs up on the Appalachians. I usually prefer the NAM in the close-in time frame because of its better grid resolution (you could think the GFS is smearing rain around mathematically where none may end up occurring to compensate). Showing both is a good idea for those who know how to manage risk and probability when it comes to planning outdoor events. As far as a better specificity on our weekend, perhaps another day of model runs is a good idea :-)
Update (5:00am) - Speaking about "tropical skies", the tropics have begun its activity, in particular the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Andrea has formed, and is heading to the Florida coast. June tropical systems aren't all that rare. After all, the "season" for the tropics starts in June. But, the most common months for storms is August through early October. Here's the latest on Andrea:
|NHC - Tropical Storm Andrea - Track||Gulf Of Mexico Infrared Satellite Imagery|
The most glaring thing I'm seeing with this is that folks heading to Myrtle Beach for the weekend will be disappointed with the weather. The rainiest days are Friday and Saturday down there. If you're thinking about taking on the Grand Strand for the week though, once this system kicks out, some better skies await along with more of the same pleasant temperatures.
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!