Another weekend draws near, and this time everyone has their sights set on something to do outside. The plan was for a front to push clear through our area and some broad sunshine to show up to give us our first rain free day in 16-- sixteen!
Now, all of the models have jumped the tracks and coalesced onto some changes, and trust me I'm not happy about it. Things are still going to start out better than they've been, but not by as wide of a margin. Here's how the GFS is conspiring against us:
I tried to lay this out as simply as possible, but it's a little tricky considering what we're dealing with is almost entirely an upper-air system. The map on the left shows the 500mb level with our upper-level low having moved through our region now being shoved backwards across the Ohio Valley during the weekend. That is, as Spock would say, "highly unusual". As that is happening, the right-hand map is showing a moisture plume developing onshore and pressing up the mountain slopes between the Low that is retrograding and the High that is forcing it that way.
When it comes to what we get at the surface, here's the forecast for rainfall over the next 48-hours:
Okay, so it's not all bad-- certainly with some perspective we know it'll be better than it's been. But, since I wanted a primo weekend of camping weather, perhaps I oversold it a bit a few days ago ;-) In truth, this sort of thing doesn't happen this way, but it seems nature has it out for us in some way. As I said yesterday on the air, the eastern mountains are going to be "iffy" this weekend. Well, now perhaps a little more iffier than "iffy" :-) The farther west you are, the better off you'll be, especially for the first part of the weekend. If you are going camping though, I would not be surprised to see you visited by a passing shower or two. It's not going to rise to the level of the showers we've been dealing with these past 16 days, but it is quite annoying to think our streak may get added to just when the thinking had been for a near-perfect time (which is what we deserved). At least we'll continue to see many dry hours in each day forward even if part of the day is risked with showers.
Come next week, we'll still have a drier than average forecast to start with, but those scattered afternoon pop-ups will continue to annoy in the midst of the returning mugginess.
For all those who are trying to get some fishing, camping, hiking, sporting, or festivating in this weekend, check back and monitor the tracking maps below. It's always good to stay ahead of the game.
Have a great day everyone!