Good Thursday morning everyone!
The line of thunderstorms that rolled through last night fortunately did not cause too much harm-- Moving too quickly for flooding, but not quickly enough for wind damage. I'm grateful for all of you that sent in pictures.
Jack took this picture along the Ashland river-front as the gust front went through. It's always a sign to look for in a thunderstorm, as the rush of rain falling down through the storm compresses the air underneath it forward, resulting in that cloud formation.
Today's weather map features a transition to a weather pattern that is not really like June, though the weather that results from it will seem typical enough.
HPC - Surface Map - Thursday Afternoon
We have a front pulling through, though last night's storms have robbed it of much of its punch. A few showers are along it nevertheless, and any sunshine that cracks in may load the deck for a few more pop-ups. There is a Flash Flood Watch through 4pm this afternoon.
The risk of showers and storms continues right through the weekend (though there will be many breaks in between), owing to a deepening trough over the great lakes and a stalling weather pattern overall. Take a look at this upper-air map from the GFS:
GFS - 500mb Chart - Tuesday Morning
The set-up will feature a large ridge building out to the west (where temperatures will hit the 110s(!) in Vegas) and a deep trough in the Ohio Valley. This is a scene straight out of winter. The temperatures under the trough are a more comfortable 80s, so the magnitude of temperature difference across the country is a June-like 40-degrees or so. In the winter-time a scenario like the above could easily bring sub-zero temperatures to the Canadian border, with highs in the 70s in the deep south. It's interesting to see how few of those black lines (representing pressure contours and wind speed) participate in creating this weather pattern. Nevertheless, a pipeline of moisture feeds all the way up from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for as long as the pattern holds. Someone's going to be getting pretty wet.
HPC - 7 Day Precipitation Projection
Vacationers to Myrtle Beach won't be too happy with this one, but in truth folks all along the Appalachian Trail will be watching the skies in case flash flooding rears its ugly head.
Have a great day everyone!
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