A good Saturday morning to you.
Today we'll be tracking our storm system, and building off the most recent discussion regarding the rains and such we'll be seeing this weekend. So far the forecast has been on track, with the rains most concentrated in our northern counties:
|24-hour Rainfall Totals|
For a rolling 24-hour total, consult the tracking map below at the end of this post.
We're still stuck with our stalled-out frontal boundary, getting waves of rainfall along it as pulses of energy work up the line. This process will change on Monday with the phasing of a stronger storm system that kicks the whole mess out of here, but not without more rain, etc. Until then, know that folks in the south and eastern parts of our viewing area (namely from southern Kentucky, across Corridor-G through to Beckley) won't be catching as bad a situation from this one. Temperatures will even spike into the mid-60s with just a few light showers poking around. In fact, I'll be hoping to see some of you at the Charleston Christmas parade later this morning; it's an event that shouldn't be avoided due to thoughts of bad weather.
|HPC - Surface Map - Saturday Night||HPC - Surface Map - Sunday Night|
On Sunday night, this system will still be a nuisance one, rather than a strong one, as 1010mb is not an example of a decent central pressure. Even the area of high pressure behind it (1030mb) does not demonstrate a good contrast between the two. Often if the area of high pressure driving a storm creates a difference in pressure greater than 30-40mb between the high and the low, then we've got something. But, that doesn't mean things will stay that way.
|GFS - Monday Afternoon||GFS - Tuesday Morning|
Eventually this thing does get down to a respectable 988mb storm, but it will be well into Canada by then. Nevertheless, there is a very tight window in which cold air slips in just quick enough to combine with a less-than-preferable lake-effect wind flow to squeeze out whatever moisture's left overhead for a few snowflakes after the system departs early Tuesday. But as far as actual 'snowfall' goes, I wouldn't hold your breath. This ends up being more 'snow-making' weather for the ski resorts than something they can depend on for fresh powder naturally.
Here's what we'll be looking at for rainfall over the next 48-hours:
|HAS Precipitation Forecast||HPC Precipitation Forecast|
Yes, umbrella-worthy for the I-64 corridor and points northward, but not an event that gets out of hand. The prolonged nature of the rain showers should keep rivers simply swollen, but still in their banks.
Feel free to track the system below using the always updating maps this weekend. Any updates that are necessary will be posted, and you are always welcome to offer your weather reports and questions/comments in the discussion section below :-)
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!