Welcome back to Monday!
After a well-deserved stretch of sunny/dry weather, I'm hoping all of us have built up a tolerance for showers, because we need 'em (and we're going to get'em). Ironically, we've already built up a surplus from the beginning of the month that we can go rain-free through to the end and still end up near or above normal for the whole month. As of today, we've got 3.61" of rain for the month, which is more than a half-inch above normal. (Last year we had 6.50"+ by this point in the month-- eesh). Since January 1st we're down about 3" off of normal averages-- so we do need to make some ground up. However, it's important to do this in measured amounts. Getting a flooding rain followed by a week of dry weather doesn't help anything; it would just be run-off or damaging flooding.
...Which is why this early week's rain will be beneficial.
|WRF - Monday PM||WRF - Tuesday PM||WRF - Wednesday PM|
Because of interference from the Atlantic side (helped out by Tropical Storm Alberto), there won't be much breathing room for any severe weather to kick up locally. We could still hear a rumble or two in the mix, but generally these are garden-variety showers. The models are trying to advertize a hang-up in the mountains for Wednesday that keeps the showers in play into mid-week, but that will just give us more water without elevating the flooding threat (hopefully anyway). Here's a look at the anticipated amount of rainfall we can expect over the next three days:
|HPC - Rainfall Projection - By Wednesday PM|
Remember, this is spread out across three days, so it should be nice and easy. As always, a downpour cannot be ruled out under any thunderstorm, but on the whole nothing too eventful should happen.
Looking ahead to the end of the week, we've got an early spring-like strong system cutting through the middle of the country, and plowing up into Canada. Most of its effects will be felt elsewhere, but for us, there will be a lot of heat channeled our way. Have a look at the map:
|GFS - Friday|
That's quite a super-duper storm, even if most of its energy is up into Canada. To put it in perspective, we have not had atmospheric thicknesses (a proxy measurement for temperature) get above the 570-line (the red dashed line nearest to us). This means we may well be looking at the hottest weather thus far this season. Here are the the model projections for temperature toward the end of the week:
|GFS - Max Temps - Thursday||GFS - Max Temps - Friday||GFS - Max Temps - Saturday|
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!