Updates Below (most recent 8:30am)
So here we are... it's time to track that change-over and gauge how the forecast is doing. Please refer to yesterday's blog post for the base forecast of this event.
Some of the models from late yesterday, particularly the NAM, came in a little colder and snowier, but that's okay since I was already a little above its numbers anyway. I would caution that the Beckley area may be flirting with higher snowfall totals if this system verifies with the new suite of runs.
The River-Cities area is still in that donut-hole bubble whereby sinking air moving down the Appalachians steps in to rob the region of what otherwise might have been a healthier snow event.
|GFS - Regional Snowfall Forecast||NAM - Regional Snowfall Forecast|
The snowfall accumulation scale should be the same on both maps, so read the right-hand one if you need to-- it looks like it's come out better. The two models have some large differences in upstate New York, but largely are similar locally.
I will update this post with the latest snowfall accumulation map featured on WSAZ if one indeed needs to be updated.
|I-68 In Mountains||Dolly Sods (Near Canaan Valley)||Lexington, KY
(I-64 East of City)
|West Liberty, KY
|Logan, WV (Video)
Also, stay tuned for updates below.
Update (7:45am) - The new low pressure center is rapidly deepening to our east, and the 700mb low has also shifted across the mountains to now support that system instead of the parent low, which is rapidly filling in an dissipating:
|Current 700mb Chart with Frontogenesis Parameters|
The purple in the above image represents the best environment for large-scale storm formation to occur. Generally, what this indicates is where the storm is going to go next (both for the center of the low and any attendant fronts). We still have good energy able to funnel westward across to the peaks of the eastern WV mountains, but farther west than that, it is all coming to a close. The height lines (the thick black lines akin to air pressure lines when at the surface) are showing our low filling in directly overhead the tri-state area as the coastal storm takes over. After the rest of these early morning snow showers fade, we shouldn't get much more to happen until the wind flow is able to orient itself in our area with some component that cuts across the Great Lakes. That starts later tonight and continues into Thursday. The eastern WV mountain counties will continue to see snowfall though, and a few different areas already have reported 6" of snow with more coming down.
Update (8:30am) - I just thought I'd put up another map bearing out the points I made with the previous update, this time at the surface (you can now look at them both in a sort-of 3-D look at how the atmosphere is playing out right now:
|Current Surface Map with
3-hour Pressure Changes
The red and blue contours on the screen are called "isallobars". They differ from isobars (which are also on the map in the black) in that instead of indicating lines of equal surface pressure, they mark lines of equal surface pressure change. So there you see-- Parent low is fading, with slowly rising pressure, and the new storm continues to intensify. And the mountains are in the middle, disrupting the connection between the two.
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!