Updates Below (most recent 4am)
Top of the mornin to ya! Thursday morning that is...
Today we start off with high pressure moving across the Ohio Valley. It's not particularly strong, but it's going to do the trick. Check out the clear-out that exists on today's surface map:
|HPC - Surface Map - Thursday|
It doesn't take long in mid-August to turn a sunny day into a hot one. The upper-80s will be the final destination for most.
So, as we've been previewing this week, Friday features our next storm system, which is the most notable one we'll get this week. There is a strong center of low pressure in southern Canada, but it's in southern Canada :-) ... By the time the action trails off down the line through the Ohio Valley, we'll have to see what's left. Thunderstorms certainly look to be a good bet up in the Great Lakes area. What we'll notice the most from this one will be the temperature change. Check out the drop from Thursday to the weekend:
|GFS - MaxTemps - Thursday||GFS - MaxTemps - Friday||GFS - MaxTemps - Saturday|
Typically in August you can't get from point A (warmth) to point B (10-degrees colder) without thunder coming. However, this time around because the center of the system progresses so far northward, it gets difficult to continue to be able to transport the good storm energy all the way up from the Gulf of Mexico to connect it with the core of the low-pressure system. Case in point:
|NAM - Available Storm Energy - Thursday PM||NAM - Available Storm Energy - Friday PM|
So thunderstorms will be more prevalent today across the mid-western section of the Ohio Valley, and by the time the system makes its way to our region its elongation becomes too much. The good storm energy just can't make the trip, and just hangs around the Tennessee Valley instead. Nevertheless, we'll still get something -- it just figures to be more of the garden variety stuff rather than severe weather (fine with me). In terms of precipitation itself, the indications are that other sections of the Ohio Valley are more targeted for rainfall (they need it much more too).
|HPC - 3Day Rainfall Totals- Ending Saturday PM|
In a convective atmosphere of a frontal passage, the smoothness of this image will become inaccurate: Someone's going to get a downpour and others much less (folks in Pikeville, KY know what I'm talking about just looking at yesterday's rain... check out the 24-hour totals on the maps below).
Following the showers on Friday, we'll get another transitional clear-out day on Saturday, then hit Sunday with some wonderful weather-- great for outdoor plans. Highs in the 70s during mid-August is something to celebrate outside.
Looking Farther Ahead... (btw, this is a tangent)
July was definitely a wonderfully wet month that helped us get back on track for rainfall (could have done without the storms though). August (so far) has been all over the place depending on where you are-- Near normal locally, but way above in the southern KY counties. The picture for September is a little murky, depending on what model you're looking at. I want to show 2 images that will bear out what I'm describing:
|NCEP - Precipitation Anomalies - September (most recent model run)||NCEP - Precipitation Anomalies - September (average of last 10 runs)|
Both images show what is described as "precipitation anomalies"... Whenever you see the word "anomaly", think "departure from normal". The brownish colors refers to lower than normal rainfall projections, and the greens are obviously the above normals. The image of the left represents the most recent projection that only uses the most recent data. The image on the right represents the averaging of the past 10 days worth of model runs of the same product. This essentially uses more information, but with less emphasis on the newest data. Notice the differences between the two. Depending on your preference, you could make a call for September that is wetter than normal, or drier than normal. Since I attempted to predict a "below normal" rainfall for the summer, I'd be inclined to choose the left-hand map ;-) ... but just judging from the past week of rain, the right-hand rendering has been doing pretty well-- but only right now. Obviously September is still a few weeks away. I'd prefer to use a blend of both that emphasizes the trend history as well as favoring the most recent data-- but sometimes those kinds of products just don't exist. So, we look at 'em both and make our own conclusions ;-)
Update (4:00am) - Locally dense fog has been developing in the southern coal fields this morning, as expected, in response to the bulls-eye of rainfall received yesterday (check out the Doppler Estimated rainfall amounts on the tracking maps below). As such, here are some maps to keep an eye on things until the Sun burns it off later this morning:
|GOES-13 Fog Product (Experimental)||GOES-13 Fog Depth Estimate|
The left-hand map identifies the thin cloud layers (yellow is fog close to the ground while the blue is cirrus clouds high above). The right-hand map looks at the thickness 'depth' of the fog layer itself. Click on either image for a larger one.
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!
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