Will the Sun come back? For one day maybe

Clouds finally break today, but don't expect it to last long. Rain and snow is on the return, and we continue to track the possibilities.

Monday Monday... On the return to the work-week we finally get some sunshine coming on back. This has been one annoying storm system we've been experiencing for nearly a week, but it's actually more simply described as a persistent wind-flow off the lakes. This has been a great example of how clouds and precipitation can continue with just a wave of the weather vane when it comes to the tri-state.

Even today the clouds will still be loitering around before leaving:

NAM - Clouds - Monday AM NAM - Clouds - Monday Afternoon

We start off in the morning STILL with our West Virginia and Ohio friends under the influence of that lake-borne wind, but by afternoon we all manage to get underneath the core of the 1020mb region of high pressure (indicated by the black lines on the above images). It's a pretty thin (and weakening) area of high pressure though, so clouds will already be thinking about heading back in after sunset.

Here's the larger surface map:

HPC - Surface Map - Monday

We're flanked by an elongated area of low pressure to our west that extends from Texas to North Dakota. Once the conglomerate is able to hook up to the Gulf of Mexico, we'll see a lot more moisture fill into this picture. Rain and snow will head to both the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. The question then becomes, what of which will we see...

NAM - Tuesday Afternoon NAM - Late Tuesday Night NAM - Wednesday Morning

Our storm approaches around lunchtime Tuesday, initially as rain. Then, much like the past few systems, once it gets to the Appalachian mountains, the surface features get all hung up, while the upper air dynamics continue onward. This acts as a log-splitter to the system itself, fostering the development of a secondary low on the other side of the slopes, one that will take over for good later. Notice how the cold air / warm air couplet eventually becomes only part of the low heading toward the coast, while the initial low languishes in all-cold air over Ohio.

As you might expect, in this scenario we're looking at more rain than anything else. However, finishing as snow is not out of the realm. Here's how the NAM and the GFS handle snowfall amounts:

NAM - Snowfall Potential - Through Wednesday GFS - Snowfall Potential - Through Wednesday

...I suppose it wouldn't be a storm without the famed donut-hole, eh? :-)

The concentration of any snow from this system along and east of the mountains is warranted considering the redevelopment that is anticipated in that direction. Underneath the original parent low is the other concentration of snowfall.

After this one moves out, we'll get improving skies to come back, together with warming temperatures. Here is the extended model forecast beyond the 7-day indicated below (I hear it's all working now):

6-10 Day Outlook - Temperature 6-10 Day Outlook - Precipitation

Cooler and wetter..? Perhaps March is more lion-y than lamb-y? Certainly nothing can beat last year's craziness.

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!


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