Updates Below (most recent 6:00pm)
Happy Saturday everyone!
Today's all about spotting the holes in the showers, the breaks in the clouds, and the peeks of sunshine and taking advantage of it. There are a lot of things going on this weekend-- the spring scrimmage at Marshall, numerous charity walks, various 5k races, and the like... and I do not think all of them are destined for a washout. In situations like these, with a high humidity air mass coming to town, just about the best thing we've got to use is a high-resolution radar model. They have great terrain detail, and their narrowly spaced data-points give us "as good as it gets" for meteorologists. That being said, there's always room for uncertainty, as pinpointing a bulls-eye thunderstorm hour-by-hour is quite a challenge. In fact, if you see something like this on the maps, perhaps consider it telling you that there will be such storms out there, not so much that any specific storm will definitely be directly overhead a specific zip-code at that very moment in time. So here's what the hi-res NAM is saying:
|NAM - 4km Sim Radar - Saturday 8am||NAM - 4km Sim Radar - Saturday 2pm||NAM - 4km Sim Radar - Saturday 8pm|
|NAM - 4km Sim Radar - Sunday 12am||NAM - 4km Sim Radar - Sunday 8am
||NAM - 4km Sim Radar - Sunday 2pm|
Comments: You can click on any of those images to pop-out a larger one to look at-- don't squint, this way's easier ;-) ... Also, notice that the bulk of the moisture floats just to our north during the day, but we'll be watching these undulating bands of showers that will hang down underneath the main impulses of showers/thunder. One such wave looks to move through during the wake-up hours, but we may find ourselves nestled in-between shower events during kickoff for the Marshall game. Since that is a multi-hour event though, bring some sort of rain gear just in case. Later in the day, and particularly at night, is when we'll be watching for the heavier stuff to come by. There may even be a "slight risk" for severe weather in our area to talk about. By Sunday morning we'll see lingering bands of showers, but they will be whithering on the vine as the day wears on. So what might look ominous initially may fade a few hours later. I suspect we may even snag a few breaks in the clouds to finish out the day.
Here's a look at the anticipated intensity of the rainfall (a commenter asked about this yesterday):
|HAS Precipitation Forecast||HPC Precipitation Forecast|
There will be a ribbon of 'healthy' rains, but it does not appear to have the same flavor of the flooding-type that we saw a few days ago. North of that streak of rain, temperatures will actually feel cool-to-cold, with highs in the upper 50s, but below it to the south, you'll get some steamy 70s.
Speaking about temperatures in general... Have a look at some numbers for the early part of next week-- perhaps the heat is back on..?
|GFS - MaxTemps - Sunday||GFS - MaxTemps - Monday||GFS - MaxTemps - Tuesday|
Stay tuned for possible updates through the day...
Update 8:15am - The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of our area under a "slight risk" for severe thunderstorms. Here's the breakdown of the threats:
|SPC - Hail Threat||SPC - Wind Threat||SPC - Tornado Threat|
We can already vouch for the hail threat, as Huntington just had a hail storm go through town. As is most often the case around here, I would concentrate more on the possibilities of culvert back-ups and power hits as the heavier rains move through (not to mention temporary disruption of wireless internet connections ;)
Update 1:30pm - After getting that nice little break following the first batch of showers, here comes the next wave of showers and storms. It's not going to hit everybody this time, but it does look like folks at the Marshall scrimmage may need those ponchos for at least a little bit. I-64 and north seem to be the most likely targets.
Update 4:00pm - The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for the area through 8:00am Sunday (see maps below). As discussed earlier, this is easily the biggest threat to our area in storms because we flood so quickly and have so many vulnerable locations. Hopefully it all sneaks by us somehow, but the past several days haven't had a great track record.
Update 6:00pm - That is somethin'... Currently the temperature in Gallipolis is 49°, and in Paintsville it's 79°. I was worried about that... One number was never going to cover it for the area ;-) ... On another note, strong thunderstorms are now popping up just north of the Ohio River and are lumbering closer from the west. These are ones we'll have to watch this evening. Severe Thunderstorm Watches are up just to our west over by Lexington-- when you've got a temperature clash like the one we're seeing, that's a lot of juice in the atmosphere.
Full suite of tracking maps today. They will all self-update continuously through the day, so check back often to help make your plans.
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!