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Hello bloggers and thanks for stopping by. The weather across the tri-state is nothing short of awesome right now with daytime highs in the 70s and morning lows near 50. This is about perfect for those of us who are tired of the heat and humidity.

But... this nice weather makes for some sloooow times for your friendly weatherman here. Not a whole heck of a lot to blog about as our current pattern will continue into the coming weekend. Since mother nature is taking a little nap right now... how about we start looking down the road a little bit to see what old man winter may have in store for us.

It's only September so we are VERY early in the game as far as the winter forecast goes. I usually put out a final winter outlook just before Thanksgiving but I am always on the lookout for information to help me along. I like to take a look at past years that have been similar to the one we are in. I am also looking for those that match the global indicies and weather patterns.

I also like to look at what some seasonal computer forecasts are saying and even what some of the folklore forecasters are telling us. Since I am in a giving mood and I need something to blog about... I am going to share a little bit of what I am finding so far.

If you are a fan of  a cold and snowy winters... this is the blog for you! Here is a seasonal temperature forecast model for North America. This is broken down into 3 month periods that you see at the top of each map with the first letters of each month. (Example... OND is for October November December)

There is a a lot of blue on those maps showing colder than normal temps for much of the country. Do the folklore forecasters agree with what the computers are showing? You be the judge...

The Farmers' Almanac shows a cold and snowy winter for much of the country. There is a guy from Kentucky who is famous for making winter predictions. His name is Dick Frymire and he has been making winter forecasts for more than 30 years. He does so by using natural methods such as tree and soil samples and has been featured on several national programs through the years. I have followed his forecasts since I was a kid and I came across a newspaper copy of his outlook for the coming winter. Here is what he thnks...

Now THAT is a detailed winter forecast! haha

Will the computers and the folklore outlooks  turn out to be right? Well... it is way to early to say with any certainty how the upcoming winter will play out. I have my own thoughts and will be sharing those with you through the fall with the forecast itself coming out in November.

Let's not wish fall away as it is an awesome time of the year!!

Take care.