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Good Monday morning everyone and welcome to a wintry week across the tri state! We have been talking about this week as the switch to some wicked winter weather and that still looks to be the case as we have several snow chances to go along with bitterly cold temps.

Some parts of the region picked up light snow last night and this was likely enough to cause some slick spots on some roads so be on watch early this morning if traveling.

Let's get the rest of the outlook started by breaking it down day by day.

Today will feature a southerly wind flow ahead of our clipper that will be moving in Tuesday. A mix of sun and clouds will be with us by afternoon with the chance for a few early flurries or leftover snow showers. Temps today will generally be in the 30s by can make a run at 40 if we can get enough sunshine... especially in the south and west.

The clipper looks a little slower in getting in here as it moves into western Kentucky late tonight and through the tri state during the day Tuesday. A band of light snow will be along and just ahead of this front...

GFS Tuesday Morning


Temps to start out Tuesday will be in the lower 30s and there could be a brief spike right before the front moves through. A touch of arctic air quickly moves in as the front passes. Winds will crank up during this time as temps fall through the 20s winding up in the teens by late evening. It is during this time that northwesterly flow will kick in with widespread snow showers and squalls breaking out.

GFS Tuesday Evening


That is a setup that can lay down an inch or two. I also want to mention the storm developing off the Carolina coast. That is something I was pointing out as a possibility a few days ago before any of the models showed this. I am wondering if the models are just latching onto a trend to bring this storm closer to the east coast as a major storm? It won't have a direct impact on us... but it could alter the clippers behind it. Just something to watch for.

Wednesday will feature another strong clipper heading toward the region from the northwest. After a very cold start temps will spike up into the low 30s Wednesday afternoon just ahead of our arctic blast. The models continue to struggle with the track of this clipper. The European model continues to come a little farther south with each run and is now just north of Cincy with the track...

Wednesday Evening


That would be a good track to lay down snow across the tri state and would also have a very nice little northwesterly snow event once the low passes by.

Now... the GFS is a little farther north at the same time...



Even with the northerly track... the model spits out some snow around here as the front moves through Wednesday night and with snow showers Thursday. The GFS Ensembles are leaning toward the European track!  I will take the European in this fight!

This brings us to the bitter cold moving in for Thursday and Friday. Highs Thursday may not get out of the teens and lows by Friday morning will head toward being a few degrees on either side of 0!



Again... that is some impressive cold across much of the country. Check out those 20s deep into the heart of Florida.

Temps Friday afternoon will struggle into the low and mid teens. Winds will be a player as well Thursday and Friday giving us sub 0 wind chills.

A weak system may try to bring some light snow and flurries to us Friday night and Saturday as we await another clipper to impact the region at some point this coming weekend. The models are more robust with this storm as they try to develop something else out of it.

While the cold may relax a day or two early next week. The pattern is locking in and looking to become more stormy as a split flow develops in the jet stream to take us through the rest of January and likely into the first of February!

There you have it my friends! How much snow will you see this week? An inch or two? Several inches? As I mentioned in my last post... if I could tell you exactly how much snow you would get I would have made enough money to retire from this biz a long time ago! Just sit back and relax and enjoy a wintry week!

I do want to remind you once again about winterizing your home or car before the bitterly cold temps hit later this week. It's a good time to check everything out to make sure it will be able to handle the arctic blast.

I will update as I can through the day so check back. Until then... have a great Monday and take care.