Good Thursday to one and welcome to trick or treat time in the tri state!!!! Many cities through the area will be holding the famous pilgrimage for candy tonight so get ready to see ghosts and goblins making the rounds. If you city picked tonight for trick or treat... they hit the weather jackpot as conditions look awesome!

Some little ones will be making their rounds Friday evening and that looks good too. It is Halloween Saturday that looks like it could be on the damp and chilly side. I can remember as a kid not caring what the weather was like because I wanted one thing and one thing only... CANDY!

Let's get into greater detail now about the weather for the next several days and into the first week of November.

As mentioned... today and Friday look great with mild temps and partly sunny skies. Highs today will warm toward 70 in most areas with low 70s likely on Friday. A nice breeze will be with us today with winds really kicking up Friday ahead of a strong cold front that crosses the region during the first part of Saturday.

Some of the models had been going rouge in trying to develop a strong low along this front and moving it right on top of us through Saturday night. The GFS was the prime culprit in showing this but has since thrown up the white flag and surrendered to the rest of the modeling world. It now shows what everything else shows... a weak wave moving northward along the front that moves through early Saturday. Take a looksy...

GFS Saturday Afternoon



 With this setup... much colder air moves in during the day from west to east behind the front. Highs will come early in most areas as afternoon temps fall into the upper 40s and low 50s as showers slowly taper off from west to east during the evening. When the rain ends at your house is till up in the air.

Seasonably chilly air moves in behind our front and the European Model has been consistent in showing this...



Temps for Sunday will hit the low and mid 30s to start and recover only into the upper 40s to low 50s for the first day of November. Temps for much of next week should be on the chilly side as a northwesterly flow continues. A weak system will dive in here around Tuesday and that's something we will watch. Beyond that... the GFS goes out on it's own yet again. I have been talking about this a lot in recent days because the model differences are pretty substantial.

The European wants to keep systems rolling into a trough across the eastern part of the country. You can see a more impressive  push of cold moving into the country by next Wednesday morning...



Now check out the differences aloft between the European Model and the GFS for next Saturday November 7th...

European



GFS



Those forecasts look NOTHING alike as the European says keep a tough and cold in the eastern US while the GFS says go warm with a ridge.

The pattern across the Pacific Ocean is throwing the models for a loop as they are really not sure on what the heck to do with everything that is going on. If you are looking purely at which model has the best physics to handle all of it and make something close to a correct forecast... the European Model wins running away. That's not saying it is correct, though.

One thing to ask yourselves... at what point over the past few weeks or even this whole year as the pattern given us a look like the GFS is showing? The short answer is it hasn't! There is something to be said about persistence in pattern forecasting. At least until it says the ride is over.

Have a great day and take care.