Good Friday everyone and welcome to the much anticipated Halloween weekend. The weather is going to change quite a bit from where we are today to where we end  things on Sunday. All of this will be courtesy of a strong cold front making it's way across the region. Could this front spell doom and gloom for trick or treaters on Saturday? Let's get into it.

Today is going to be a very windy and warm day across the tri state. Highs will be warming toward the low and perhaps mid 70s across of the tri state. The farther east, the warmer as clouds won't be as thick. Regardless of the exact temp where you live... it is going to be a warm Friday!

The front will move in later tonight and bring with it a band of showers and thunderstorms. You will be able to track the rains right here...



Halloween Saturday has been a day of much forecasting angst of late as the models have all struggled mightily with how fast this front blows through. The progressive models are going to win the battle as the front swings through very early Saturday with high temps coming at 12:01am Saturday. From that point... temps will be falling through most of the day. The rains look to end from west to east during the afternoon and evening hours for most areas. This should give many areas some decent trick or treat weather. The NAM model is in the camp that a low may form along the front to our south and east Saturday night bringing the rain back into the tri state. Take a look...

Saturday Evening



Sunday Morning



That has a shot at happening... and is something to watch for.  The GFS has come around to the progressive frontal passage instead of blowing up some big low over us and taking it toward the lakes like it had been showing. The new run has  the second low but forms it farther east

Again... we will have to watch to see if this low can fire up close enough to give us a cold rain Saturday night into Sunday. Stay tuned!

How about the temps for Halloween? I mentioned the highs would come just after the clock strikes 12 and that will indeed be the case. Temps will fall toward the upper 40s and low 50s for much of the daylight hours for Halloween and then drop into the mid 40s for trick or treaters. Here is what the GFS is showing for temps at that time...



Beyond that...

- November starts off with a seasonal chilly with highs upper 40s to low 50s for Sunday. Again... keep an eye on the possible 2nd low. If it is near us... temps will be colder because of showers and clouds.

- A second system will dive in Monday night and early Tuesday with little in the way of weather. Highs Monday will be in the low to mid 50s and fall to the upper 40s to low 50s Tuesday when a passing shower would be possible.

- The middle and end of next week will see seasonal temps in the 50s for highs and lows near 30. Watch for a second push of colder air coming in by the end of next week into the following weekend. The GFS is starting to "warm up" to this idea...

Friday November 6th



It is funny to watch this model go from coast to coast warmth for all of next week to now giving us temps that never get above the 50s for highs. As I have said... el nino winters are rough on the poor old GFS. The other models will have their fair share of problems as well and the last run of the European model proved that.  See... I can bash all the models!

I am strongly looking over the month of November right now and MIGHT be picking up on something that looks like an early start to winter near turkey day. I will have the November outlook on late this weekend so be looking for that.

Winter has already started for much of the country. I found some amazing video from near Denver and it might have you up dancing some as you check out the snowy scenes...

 

I will have another update later this afternoon so check back. Take care.