Noon Update

We have had some reports of sleet with some of the showers that have moved through today. Parkersburg even reported a period of light snow. The setup this afternoon is for mainly for cold showers but some sleet is possible as temps remain in the low and mid 40s for highs.

I was looking for some of these reports to be passed along to the public from the NWS in Charleston, but they have nothing. Not even a mention of the snow report out of Parkersburg. There is something to be said about loving your job and wanting to give the best information that you can to the public... especially when the public pays your salary!

Im off my mini rant now. hahaha  Have a great afternoon and take care.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Good Wednesday everyone. We are now into the 4th day of November and we are already building up a negative temperature departure across the entire region. That number will grow colder over the next few days before we see some changes coming up for the second week of the month. Get set for a taste of Indian Summer!

Even with a milder week ahead of us... the pattern of next week is already showing how it will lead to it's own demise and lead us into what may be an early start to winter later in the month.

Let's talk about the weather today before we get too far ahead of ourselves.  A cold front will be working southeastward across the region bringing an increase in clouds and even a shower or two. Here are a couple of radars for you to track any drops that fall...

It won't be much in the way of showers and what is out there may try to hang tough into early Thursday as another disturbance crosses our part of the world from the northwest.

Temps today will be tricky. If clouds are thick... readings will easily stay well down into the 40s. A little more sun where you live would equal 50 or so. The NAM model is most aggressive with the temps while the GFS says clouds and a shower or two keep thermometers down this afternoon...



Here is how the rest of the forecast shakes out...

- Thursday could still see a shower hanging around and will be another chilly and blustery day with highs in the 40s.

- Friday begins out very cold with mid 20s then turns better with afternoon readings into the low 50s.

- Indian Summer begins this weekend! Highs will warm well into the 60s for Saturday under sunny skies. A 70 or two will be lurking for Sunday into early next week!!! Overall... this should be a nice stretch of weather.

I am already noticing the models breaking this pattern down pretty quickly  as we go toward Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. It is by this time that a southern branch storm system may get cranking and bring our next threat of rains. It would also knock the temps way down.

I have been talking to some folks I work with and telling them I thought we needed to get a nice November mild spell in order to get the crazy amount of cold that continues to build in Canada to come south into the US. The milder pattern is on it's way... now we wait and see what follows it up for the middle and end of November. Maybe something like this?

GFS November 18th



Take a look at the GFS Ensembles 11-15 day 500mb Height Anomalies...



That map probably doesn't mean very much to many of you... but it shows the potential for a pretty darn cold pattern setting up for the eastern half of the country. You have to love seeing that blocky look showing up in Canada!!!

Have a good day and take care!