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6PM UPDATE

Good evening everyone. We are still in WINTER STORM THREAT mode with a likely upgrade to ALERT coming later this evening. I am working at the real job right now so I don't have a lot of time to post. Here are my thoughts...

1. Winter Storm Watch out for much of the tri stateis not far enough west and north! This should include every county in our coverage area and i suspect it will before it's over!!!!

2. Rain and snow will break out from south to north Friday morning into the afternoon. Temps will drop as the precip starts and snow will take over.

3. Heavy bands of snow will set up Friday night into Saturday.

4. I will have a snowfall map online this evening. My early thoughts range from 2"-4" in the far northwest to more than a foot across the mountains. The map will fill in the rest for you.. but you get the idea.

5. This should be a wet snow meaning the areas who get pounded with the highest totals may have some power problems.
 

The NAM coninues to show a major snowstorm for a lot of people. This is what the MODEL shows...

I will have another update later this evening so check back. Take care.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Good Thursday everyone. The blog is shifting into full WINTER STORM THREAT mode as we are seeing an increasing chance for a significant snowstorm from Friday night through Saturday for much of central and eastern Kentucky. As you know... THREAT mode is only to ramp up awareness for the possibility of a significant winter weather event. If my confidence increases... we will take it to Alert status.

The trend for a faster and farther north and west moving storm coming out of the Gulf of Mexico is clear as a bell. We are seeing this happen because our second system diving through the middest is being progged stronger which carves out a sharper trough helping pull the east coast system westward.

Both the NAM and GFS are now in lock step with one another suggesting a widespread heavy, wet snowfall for most of the region. Take a look at the impressive snowfall numbers coming from the models...

NAM Snowfall


GFS Snowfall

Here is my early peak at how this MIGHT work out...

1. Precip moves in from south to north on Friday. It will likely be in the form of a cold rain and wintry mix as temps will be in the mid and high 30s.

2. Heavier precip moves in Friday evening and changes to wet snow as temps drop to freezing.

3. Moderate to heavy snow may develop areawide late Friday night into much of Saturday. Temps will be holding near the freezing mark so this would be a wet snow. Nice for building snowmen!

4. Snows will taper to snow showers from west to east later Saturday into Saturday night as temps drop into the 20s.

5. A separate "clipper" system moves in late Sunday into Monday and can lay down more snow.

In looking at the overall weather charts for this storm. I am reminded of a similar setup from back in early February 1998. Now... I am NOT saying this will even come close to producing anything like that "dusting". But, I can see some similarities in the setup. Ironically... this system has a chance of producing the most widespread heavy snow for central and eastern Kentucky since that very same system.

Again... we still have a ways to go before I can say this is a stone cold lead pipe lock to happen! The threat is to raise the awareness level to the possibility of a big time snow event around here. Don't go stocking up on bread and milk just yet. I will tell you when and if  it's time to do just that!

The blog updates will come fast and furious over the next few days so check back.

Have a great day and take care.