8pm Update

Good evening everyone and thanks for blogging. I wanted to drop by for a quick update as the 18z run of the  GFS came in much snowier across the entire Tri State. Here is the snow map from it...

Again... don't get married to that map because it will surely change from run to run. I am only showing it to say that the odds for a major snowfall in all or parts of the Tri state is on the rise.

I will have a full update later tonight so check back. Take care.

4pm Update

Good afternoon everyone. My apologies for the late post as I was dealing with internet issues at home so I had to get to work to get this post on. I am upgrading most of the tri state to a  Winter Storm Threat for Friday into Saturday as a major winter storm takes aim at the region.

Here is a look at the threat area...


The threat is for the are I believe has the best chance at seeing 4" or more of snow out of this storm. A Winter Storm Watch has been posted for parts of the region already and I hope to have a maps of that soon. The trend for the models is for less of a low into the Tennessee Valley on Friday and more of a focus on the Main low across the Carolinas. This would mean we do not get as much of a "warm" surge of air into the state Friday.

The NAM is coming around to that idea and shows a pretty big snowfall hit for some of the areas we have outlined...


Here is what I am thinking...

- Precip moves in quickly later Thursday night into Friday morning from south to north. This is likely to be a mixed bag of snow, sleet and some rain. It could easily be all snow for a few hours.

- There is likely to be a transition to rain across the southern sections during the day Friday. I just don't know how far north that rain line will get. If it stays farther south... the snow totals north of it will be much higher.

- Colder air crashes in here Friday evening with rain to snow in all areas by the wee hours of Saturday morning.

- It is likely to be snowing hard in most areas late Friday night into Saturday morning.

- Whoever gets mainly snow is going to get a pretty good pounding out of this as it will be a heavy, wet snow that can bring power outages with it. Again... odds favor the north and northeast as having the best shot at something like this.

This is a very complicated storm as you can see so the forecast can easily change over the next few days. The blog will stay on top of it and have updates as needed.

By the way... the period from Monday night through Wednesday of next week looks nothing short of wicked right now.

Take care.
 

Previous Update

Good Wednesday everyone and thanks for stopping by the blog. What are we to do about the weekend storm system that will be rolling our way? That is the million dollar question right now and it is one that I do not quite have the answer to just yet as we find the computer models now evenly split into two distinct camps for Friday and Saturday.

The first camp of models basically now consists of the NAM and GFS as they both have the dual structured storm look. The first low makes it all the way into Kentucky before weakening out and giving way to the main low across the Carolinas. You can see how this looks on the GFS for Friday Evening...



That would bring a sure of slightly warmer air into the region for much of the daylight hours Friday meaning a cold rain for the west and south with a mix and snow in the north and east being likely. Everything would then change to snow from north to south Friday night with snows carrying into early Saturday on the GFS.

Now take a look at the European Model for the EXACT same time...



You notice it does not have the bluegrass state low and instead puts all the emphasis on the low in the Carolinas. That setup would imply less warm air advection into the region and a better chance for more wintry weather Friday with a faster transition to snow Friday evening.

The Canadian Model is also in the camp of the European right now. Which camp is right? Heck if I know as we are still a few days away and have plenty of time to figure it all out.  If you held a gun to my head and made me tell you what I THINK is going to happen, you would get something like this...

- A cold rain and mix develops from south to north early Friday with mainly snow in the north into Ohio and the WV mountains. Temps will be within a few degrees of freezing making for a tough call on precip type.

- Rain and mix will change to snow quickly Friday evening from north to south as temps drop below freezing.

- Saturday would likely feature snow and it could be heavy at times with the POTENTIAL for several inches.

- The best bet for a significant snowfall would be across the northern areas that didn't get as much out of this past storm and for the mountains.

- Since you have a gun to my head... please don't shoot!

Given that the NAM and GFS are the warmest and strongest with the 2nd low... they are still spitting out a decent snowfall...

GFS


NAM (Only through Friday Night)


Again... those are the two models that bring the other low the farthest north so they are going to show less snowfall. Don't worry.. those maps will change a lot with the next few runs.

The NAM run does suggest some good snows would fall regardless during the day Saturday...

Saturday Morning



That actually doesn't look too bad.

As you can see... this storm is a headache to forecast and is really the first system we have had this entire winter that we have really had to worry about "the fence" between rain and snow! It should be fun to track the next few days... well... maybe not fun for me.

By the way... watch out early next week as yet another storm is likely to make a run at us ahead of a major arctic outbreak...
Tuesday Morning


Is this an exciting winter pattern or what? I will have updates later today so make sure you check back. Have a great Wednesday and take care.