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10:30pm

Wow is all i can say after looking at the latest run of the NAM model. It shows a pounding snow for areas along and north of Interstate 64 from late Friday through Saturday. The model is spitting out a foot of snow in some areas. That does NOT mean it's right. I will post the map and my latest call for snowfall coming in my late night post so check back.

Take care.

8pm Update

Good Thursday evening everyone. Winter Storm Alert mode is well underway for most of the tri state and we are watching to see just how far south and west that Alert will encompass. The newest runs of the GFS and NAM both rolled in with colder solution as they are both now sensing they were overdeveloping the lead low into the Tennessee Valley. The weaker that low... the less warm air advection into the area.

Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories are out for parts of the region. Here is a map of the counties included...

I would bring the Winter Storm Warnings all the way south to I-64 with A Winter Weather Advisory for areas southwest of that. If the NWS would do that... we will have a map I can live with!

The folks at the HPC are saying there is a good chance for 4"+ snows in much of the region for the next few time periods they are forecasting for...


Perhaps the new 18z runs of the NAM and GFS will have an influence on some forecasts out there. Both models went straight toward the first call map I put our early today. Take a look...

NAM


GFS


Those maps are from everything that falls through Saturday.

The precipitation is breaking out quickly from south to north across the area this evening and will really settle in overnight. It should start as rain then switch to snow and a mix for most areas by morning. This can lay down a slushy accumulation... especially the farther north you live. The mix will change to heavy rains across the south by later Friday morning with a mix continuing across the I-64 region with mostly snow across the north and into the mountains.

Bye early evening... the snow line will crash rapidly south across the area with snow taking over. The heaviest snows will take place later Friday night into Saturday morning. This will be a very wet snow so we must be on guard for power problems for any area that gets 6 or more inches of the white stuff.

We will continue to watch the overall trend with the new model runs that will be out over the next few hours. Will they continue to come in a little colder? If so... we may have to make a southwestward adjustment with the Alert area.

I will have more updates as needed so check back. Take care.

6pm Update

Hey gang... I am just dropping by to let you know I will have a full update for you coming up between 7 and 8 so make sure you check back. I will be showing the newest snowfall maps from the NAM and GFS as both runs came in colder with our storm.

Take care.

1pm Update

Good afternoon gang and thanks for dropping by. I don't have a lot of time, but I wanted to make sure we got a first call map out to you can get an idea of what I am thinking in terms of snow.

Here ya go...


The heaviest band of snow will be setting up across Ohio and into the West Virginia mountains with lighter amounts the farther southwest you go across the tri state. A Winter Storm Watch is out parts of the area and I suspect that will be upgraded to a warning. I would hope the NWS includes MANY more counties in this Watch/Warning!  

I will have a more in depth discussion coming later today as my time is short right now. Until then... have fun tracking the storm moving our way...



Take care.

PREVIOUS UPDATE

Good Thursday everyone. We continue with our Winter Storm Threat for much of the tri state for Friday into Saturday as yet another storm rolls our way. As we have been talking about... this one is very complicated because of the old fence setting up across the region. This is really the first time this winter we have had to worry about the whole rain verses snow thing and we will try to break it down in greater detail.

The latest NAM came up with a fairly wild solution as it brought a heavy snow band along and east of the strong upper level low scooting across the area Friday night and Saturday. Is that band real? Probably not... But with such a strong system... I can't completely rule something like that out. Here is what the NAM is showing...



Again...  for the folks across the south and southwest, try not to get too excited unless we see it showing up on other runs today. For now... discard it.

The GFS also looks to be a little suspect with it's lighter totals across the south and west because it is too weak with the upper level low moving through...


Regardless of their problems.. bot say the same thing...Most of the tri state has a good shot at 4 or more inches of snow with parts of Ohio and the West Virginia Mountains in line for a lot more.

The storm will push precipitation into the are later tonight and it will be in the form of a little bit of everything. How it plays out from that point is still up in the air... but I have prepared some forecast maps for you guys to help break it down...







How much snow will fall and where? Well... I am not ready to put out a first call map just yet. That should be coming later today so check back for it.

Before I leave... how good do the GFS Ensembles look for the possible storm early next week?



That would be some crazy cold coming in behind that storm for the middle and end of next week. I see NO signs of this pattern letting up anytime soon.

I will have more updates later today so make sure you check back. Have a great Thursday and take care.