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6pm Update

Good Super Sunday Evening everyone. If you are a fan of winter weather... the week ahead is sure to be super in a lot of ways as we have snow and cold that will be the main players.

Aress just to our west and north are now under a Winter Storm Watch for Monday night into Tuesday.  Here is a look...



The models today continue to come in with a colder setup for Monday night and Tuesday for most areas. They are still trying to bring in some slightly warmer surface temps to parts of the tri state... even with the colder setup aloft. The latest NAM matches up withe the European model with the colder solution aloft...

Tuesday Morning


Tuesday Afternoon


That certainly suggests good period of snow and ice later Monday night into the first part of Tuesday for many areas. You can see the European Model for Tuesday Morning looked very similar with the 0c 850 line being south into Tennessee...



We will fine tune that Monday night and Tuesday forecast with the overnight update. You will notice by Wednesday morning that wind and widespread snows should engulf the area. That setup is enough to produce some decent snows around here into Wednesday night. You can see this a little better on the GFS Ensembles...



There is a STOUT upper level system swinging through here during this time as you can see with the thermal min passing through on those charts.

A few of the models are TRYING to bring something across the south late week into early in the weekend that would be trying to hook up with a system diving in from the northwest. Here is the Canadian Model...



I will have a full update later tonight. Time to watch the Super Bowl.

Take care.

Previous Update

Good Sunday everyone and thanks for blogging. Let me start out by saying that I have a backlog of emails to answer and I am hoping to put a dent in that this weekend. If you emailed me at any point over the past few months and didn't hear back... hang tough as I am getting there.

In terms of the weather... our very active winter pattern continues across much of the country and the upcoming week looks pretty darn wintry around here. That won't be the case today so much as some sunshine returns. Temps this morning will crash into the teens with a shot at some single digits for areas in the north and ithat have snow on the ground.
Highs today will top out in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Clouds will be on the increase Monday afternoon ahead of our next winter weather maker. I am watching this setup closely for a possible Threat upgrade across parts of the state for late Monday night into Tuesday. The setup is for a VIGOROUS upper level system to dive into the plains states later Monday and Tuesday. This will spawn a weak low pressure across the eastern Ohio Valley with another low moving up the east coast. The big difference between this and the setup we are just coming out of is that temps will be much colder to start and a major blast of cold air scoots in. You can see how this all works out on the GFS Ensembles...




The GFS snowfall is not as tightly wound or as wet as the Ensembles. Here is the latest snowfall map from Tuesday through Wednesday...



The situation for Monday night and Tuesday certainly needs to be watched closely for a period of snow and ice to move in Monday night into Tuesday morning. This could cause a mess for the early Tuesday commute in all areas. Temps will try to go above freezing across the south and southeast for a few hours Tuesday afternoon... but this may happen as a lot of the leading precip shield has already done the damage with snow and ice. That above freezing surge will be VERY short lived as our arctic front slams in by late afternoon and early Evening.

The upper level low will cruse through here through Wednesday with widespread snows that will try to hang on into Thursday morning. Winds will be very gusty and snow ratios should be rather high with the cold temps.This would lead to the potential for some decent snows for the entire region. We are going to make a lot of school kids happy in the week ahead!

By the way. We have all seen the video and pics from the mid atlantic states historic blizzard that just wrapped up. Guess what? Another snowstorm or blizzard will be possible from DC to Boston by the middle of the week! This situation for some areas may get totally out of control with the amount of snow on the ground. This has truly been an historic winter for much of the country and we still have A LOT more winter to go through. The pattern over for the rest of the month looks VERY cold with many more chances for snow.

I will have an update on the early week winter woes with an update later today so be sure to check back. Until then... take care.