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10:30pm Update

Snow will overspread the tri state from southwest to northeast between midnight and 3am. The morning commute is going to be nasty across the entire region and this will lead to tons of cancellations and delays.

A switch to light rain is possible in a lot of areas from later in the morning into the afternoon before going back to snow Tuesday night and Wednesday with several inches likely.

I will have a full update later tonight. Take care.

6pm Update

Good evening everyone. I wanted to drop by for a quick update to show you how the Winter Storm Warnings have now expanded to include much of the tri state though Wednesday. A few counties in central West Virginia are under a Winter Weather Advisory during the dame time. Here is the updated map...

Snow will be breaking out from southwest to northeast later this evening into the overnight and will become mixed with some ice across the south. You can track this mess in here with regional radar...



Here are the headlines of this thing...

- Snow develops overnight with some ice possible by morning across the south. This will be a high impact event for the morning commute.

- My snow map from my last update for late tonight and early Tuesday remains unchanged.

- Temps will try to go above freezing for a few hours in most of the area... this would mean a switch to some freezing rain or light rain will take place... especially across the south and east. The deepest moisture may already be over by this time.

- Arctic front to slam in here Tuesday evening. Temps will drop by more than 10-15 degrees in just a few hours as any rains go back to snow.

- Snows will move back in Tuesday night and last through Wednesday night. High snow ratios will be with us meaning we maximize the amount of precip that falls. Several inches of snow will fall during this time.

- Winds will crank up to 30-35mph into Wednesday creating blowing and drifting snows. Wind chills will be near 0.

Overall... this is a high impact winter storm that will hit the region over the next few days. I will have more updates as needed later this evening so check back. Take care.

4pm Update

Good afternoon everyone. A Winter Storm Warning is now out for much of the tri state from late tonight through Wednesday.  Heavy snow will develop late tonight and continue into early Tuesday when some of it will mix with freezing rain and rain... especially across the south. Snow will then move back in later Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Total snowfall over the next few days will likely be great than 6" in many areas. Blowing and drifting snows will be likely on Wednesday.

More updates through the evening. Take care.

1pm Update

Good Good afternoon everyone. We are now in full blow Winter Storm Alert mode for a system that will come at us in two pieces over the next few days. The first one comes at us overnight into the first part of Tuesday with snow and a mix of snow and freezing rain developing from south to north. This will make for a VERY messy Tuesday morning commute across the entire region.

Winter Storm Watches and Warnings and advisories are out for parts of eastern Kentucky...



Much of West Virginia and southern Ohio will likely be included in something before all is said and done as the NWS in Charleston jumps on board.

We have been talking about this system for several days now and the model runs continue to come in colder and colder the closer we get. This is a testament to the low level cold air that is already in place. Deep moisture will be riding northward into the region quickly this evening and overnight leading to widespread snow developing. This will switch to a period of Freezing Rain and possibly rain across parts of the tri state for a few hours Tuesday as temps make a run toward freezing or just above for a bit. That won't last long as an arctic front blasts through here with a dramatic temp drop by late in the day from west to east.

Here is my first call for snowfall from the first part of this system...



My confidence level is not very high right now with the snow totals as I am worried about being too conservative for the tri state.  I have lower totals in these areas anticipating a little greater ice potential and then a period of rain.. especially the farther south you go.

The second half of the storm cranks up Tuesday night through Wednesday night with several inches of snow likely across the entire area. This will be a dry snow that will blow and drift as winds reach 30-35mph.  Most of the tri state will see 6 or more inches of snow over the next 48-72 hours.

Wind chill readings will be very low from late Tuesday into Wednesday as well, so keep that in mind.

On a side note... I am going to be policing the comments section closely as the same people are logging in under different names to cause problems. Take it elsewhere or your commenting days on this blog are over. I have been doing a weather blog for 6 years now and I can assure you that I have dealt with more than my fair share of jealous people trying to stir the pot by doing exactly what you are doing.

I will have more updates later this afternoon so be sure to check back. Until then... take care.

Previous Update

Good Monday everyone. We have a whole lot of wintry weather to talk about as we have a very busy weather week that is just beginning. Our first item up for bids is a system that will roll in here later tonight into Tuesday and this is likely to be a high impact system that brings snow and some ice to the region. Then we watch more widespread snows and arctic air surge in here Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The system moving in tonight has prompted Winter Weather Advisories to be issued for parts of the tri state. The morning commute Tuesday is going to be nasty across the entire region with the main emphasis on western West Virginia, southern Ohio and eastern Kentucky. I have a map showing the wide variety of weather I am expecting...



I want to stress something here and that the bust potential with this is the opposite of our last storm as cold air is already in place and the models all coming in colder with each run. This could mean much more snow and ice than the map shows into early Tuesday bringing us to the cusp of winter storm material. Several inches of snow will be very possible for the areas that stay all snow. I am also concerned about the freezing rain threat... especially ealy in the morning considering we have a frozen ground. The best threat for a switch to all rain will be the farther south you live and that all rain line will try to creep north toward Huntington and Charleston by later Tuesday morning or early afternoon.

The NAM is showing the 850 0 celcius line and the 540 thickness lines staying to our south through the enitre event. This strongly suggests mainly frozen precip...

NAM Tuesday Morning



Tuesday Afternoon



Tuesday Evening


The GFS Ensembles are also having a tough time scouring out the low level co air that is alread in place...



That is one nice arctic shot blowing in here later Tuesday into Tuesday night. Temps may drop by as much as 15 degrees in just a few hours when the front moves through where you live. Winds will gust up and may reach as high as 30-3mph leading to dangerously cold wind chills. Snow showers and squalls will become widespread from Tuesday night through Wednesday night and this can lay down some decent snow totals. This snow will be aided by a strong northwesterly wind flow and a high liquid to snow ratio because of the cold air in place. Some blowing and drifting of whatever snow falls is likely on Wednesday.

I have made a map of what I expect during this time in terms of a general snowfall...



I am not putting numbers out just yet... but I refer to a light snowfall as 1"-3". Again... that would NOT include the totals from tonight and Tuesday and is only for Tuesday night through Wednesday.

A few words about other weather items on my mind...

- Yet another Blizzard is likely from the DC area to New York and Boston by mid week. Amazing!!

- This pattern may bring snows into Florida late this week!

- We have to watch the southern system on Friday... that looks to stay to our south right now. But a weak system may dive in later Friday or Saturday from the northwest with some light snows.

- The pattern next week continues to be primed for snowstorms across the eastern half of the country. The retrograding look to things suggest ground zero next week may be farther west than where it sets up this week and could put this region in the middle of the game.

- If we don't hit freezing Tuesday... we may not do it for a week... at least! This is a COLD pattern for most of the country as February goes right to the place the blog forecast it to go to weeks ago.

Speaking of the snows across the DC area... check out this cool time lapse snowfall video...

 

I will have several updates out today so please check back. If you have travel plans later tonight into Tuesday and Wednesday make sure to stay on top of this.

Take care.