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1pm Update

Good Thursday afternoon gang. I am updating the blog to move us into Winter Storm Threat mode for the Sunday through Monday period. We first targeted this time frame from several days back as one to watch and I am seeing enough to upgrade this potential to get the word out early since we are going into a weekend.

The arctic low pressure will be diving southeastward across the lower Ohio Valley on Sunday and will strengthen on it's way to the coast. Overrunning snows will break out quickly from west to east across the state on Sunday with the heaviest snows coming Sunday night into Monday as our system wraps up. The models continue to come in a bit stronger with each run. Here is what the GFS is showing for snowfall through Monday night...



Do NOT take that map as the absolute truth!!!! I am only showing it to give you guys an idea of how this snowfall moves through... from west to east. Another thing that will come into play by Monday will be increasing snow ratios meaning we will maximize the amount of moisture needed to produce snow. Snow showers and squalls should continue well into Tuesday and Wednesday of next week and this could add to the totals.

A couple of other weather notes..

- A few flurries or some very light snow will be possible Friday night and Saturday.

- There is a southern snowstorm that is just now cranking up and may spread snow from Texas to... gulp... northern Florida!

- It is possible that all 50 states record snow on the ground at the same time this week. The last time that happened? The late 1970s winters.

- Looking farther down the road for the next storm threat? How about the end of next week into next weekend.

I will update as needed. Have a great Monday and take care.

Previous Update

Good Thursday everyone. Our latest winter storm has pulled away from the region leaving behind a fresh layer or snow and some leftover snow showers and flurries today for some. As has been the case this winter... we don't have a lot of time to rest as we focus on our next snow maker due in town late this weekend into early next week.

The latest winter storm dumped quite a bit of snow across parts of the tri state. Round 2 of the storm put down anywhere from a couple of inches to as high as 8 or 9 into parts of southeastern Kentucky and southern West Virginia. This adds to our snowy and cold winter that is in progress. The NWS in Jackson, Ky is currently in the middle of their 3rd snowiest winter on record and they have a shot at moving on up the list before all is said and done.

Speaking of the NWS... I want to give all of them a big shout out as I think they all did a wonderful job with this week's winter storm. They had some great discussions and some great forecasts. Kudos!

Ok... let's get into the meat of the forecast as we have more snow chances ahead of us.

As mentioned... some light snows will be winding down today in the east. Highs today will range from the mid to upper 20s central.

A weak system will dive in from the northwest late Friday into Saturday and may bring some flurries or a batch of very light snow. Can this lay down a light accumulation? Temps will come back down a few degrees on Saturday.

The main threat for accumulating snows around here will come with an arctic wave/low pressure that will slide southeast out of the northern plains Saturday night into Sunday. This low should be fairly weak on Sunday as it moves into the western Tennessee Valley. A streak of snow will likely develop out ahead of it from west to east across the tri state. The energy diving into the area Sunday night into Monday is pretty impressive and should mean we get a low pressure to strengthen the farther east it gets. The European Model is showing this quite well by Monday Evening...



Here is how the progression of this system looks on the GFS...

Sunday Morning


Sunday Evening


Monday Morning


Monday Afternoon


The setup for this allows for this storm to deepen quite a bit more and I suspect we will see this on future model runs. What does all this mean for us? This should mean a decent swath of snow moves through here Sunday and Monday with the potential for several inches of the white stuff. This is something we will keep a very close eye on for a possible upgrade to Threat mode.

The pattern for the rest of the month will continue to feature many more snow chances and additional storm possibilities. The cold air may actually grow stronger in the coming weeks. The GFS Ensembles are showing some big negative departures over the next few weeks. Take a look at what they are showing in terms of the 850mb temp anomalies...



Those are very impressive and you can see how the core of the cold is basically right on top of us.

I will have more updates on the weekend snow chances later today so check back. Until then.. take care.